Colorado Home Mortgage Loan

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will be impacted by a variety of Economic reports due out this week.  We saw some nice improvements last week and we are hoping that the momentum will continue to drive Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates down.  We are hitting some resistance in the MBS market and you can learn more about that at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.  We will focus this site on the news that will impact your Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates today.  We only had one report today, which was the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.   The Chicago PMI is measured by new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories and employment; asking for positive, negative or unchanged readings of each. A reading above 50% generally indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50% signifies contraction.  The Chicago PMI report came in at 49.6 which still indicates contraction in production however it does appear that we may be hitting the turning point soon.  We can only contract so far before expansion becomes inevitable.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates did not move much from the news as it basically came in close to expectations.  With no surprises in the report investors looked to the headlines to make their buying decisions.  The stock market did increase a bit and because of those gains MBS did take a bit of a hit.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates did jump up about .125% by close of business. 

I do not think that the increase seen today will continue unless something unexpected happens in the next day or so.  Most of the Economic reports being released this week will have minor impacts on Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, and will not be enough to break any new barriers.  Most of the decreases felt in Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates over the last couple of weeks have found its way into the Rate Sheets today, and LOCKING would be a good idea.  Those that think inflationary pressures will not creep into the news might find this week’s economic data favorable to Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates.  We have a variety of reports due out that will create some movement.  The two reports to watch out for this week are tomorrows ISM index and Thursday Nonfarm Payroll.  These are the only two reports that could break some of the barriers we are seeing in the MBS market.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers such indicators as orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders, and import orders. The ISM provides a composite index of national manufacturing conditions.  Manufacturing is an important sector of the economy and the ISM index is one of the two primary national measures (the Chicago PMI is the other). Like the Chicago PMI anything reported below 50 indicates a contraction in the market.  If the Chicago PMI is a preview of what is to come in the ISM Manufacturing Index, we will see this report indicating some contraction in the market.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates should decrease a bit if the report indicates contraction.  How much Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will improve depends greatly on what the report says.  I don’t expect any surprises in this report and because of that, do not expect any real movement to play out in the Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate market.

Non-Farm Payrolls is estimated based on a survey of larger businesses measuring the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in businesses or for the government.  This report typically has a big impact on Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, because on the inflationary implications that come from the report. The Non-Farm Payroll data is the top number of the Employment Report, one of the most highly anticipated pieces of economic data. The headline figure is often a major market mover with the labor market a strong predictor of the strength of the economy. The Unemployment Rate is obtained from a different data sample, and together the two reports provide the most comprehensive picture of the labor market.  This could be the information we need to break through the price Ceiling currently being felt in the market.  This also assumes that we do not see any additional movement in Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates until then.  Inflation is a hot topic and if the reading comes in worse then expected, much of the inflationary fears revolving around this report will dissipate (for the time being).  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will see some nice improvements and we might at that time get below the 6.0% range.  We need to weigh out the risk/reward in any decision to float or Lock.  We have hit a low point for the last couple of weeks and we will need the economic data to indicate something that is contradictory to what experts are say.  Which is that inflation is under control.  Only if this happens will rates improve to a point where floating makes sense.  Its like betting on the right horse, about a 1 in 10 shot, because of this if you are not risk adverse, then LOCKING would be a good idea.

Please call me with your Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate questions.  I would enjoy earning your business.

Daniel

Colorado Online Mortgage rates experienced a lot of activity in the last couple of days.  We have a variety of economic reports to talk, but in short most of the data released came in positive for Colorado Online Mortgage rates.  The movement seen in the Mortgage Backed Securities markets however has not been enough to send Colorado Online Mortgage rates to far down.  We have seen about a 1/8^th decrease in Colorado Online Mortgage rates and we are hoping that going into next week we see Colorado Online Mortgage rates continue to drop.  Listed below are the Economic reports reported in the last couple of days all of which will have some impact on Colorado Online Mortgage rates:

Yesterday 6/26/2008

Corporate Profits continue to be the hot headline topic.  So far Corporate Profits are down and with recent troubles being reported by GM and Ford its hard to believe that Corporate Profits will come back this year.  The negative press related to Corporate Profits will increase the likelihood that investors will buy Mortgage Backed Securities.  This demand should decrease pressure on interest rates and should move Colorado Online Mortgage rates down.  

Jobless Claims continue to jump over expectations sending another weakening influence in our economy.  Jobless claims are monitored as a signal of strength in our economic system.  We are trending above 3.1 Million Claims which is at a new high for this decade.  Investors again tend to lean towards MBS in order to ride out the poor economic storm.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates tend to do better when this report comes in worse then expected.

Existing Home Sales did come in a bit better then expected.  We were anticipating 4.96 Million homes sold and in fact we had 4.99 Million.  This report would have normally had negative impacts on Colorado Online Mortgage rates, but the difference was not enough to send any real shock waves to investors.  As a Colorado Online Mortgage Provider I will attribute the higher then expected numbers to an increased activity seen in the summer months.  We also have many new home owners recognizing the potential to buy now and this would increase home sale activity.  The report though negative did not move Colorado Online Mortgage rates in one direction or the other.

Gross Domestic Product Came in as expected showing about a 1% increase.  GDP is the biggest monitor for recessionary pressures.  Negative GDP numbers are defined as Recessionary periods.  Two GDP reports in a row showing negative output indicates that we are in a recession.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates did not react to the information.  Most of the expectations in GDP have already been priced into the Colorado Online Mortgage markets and would have only impacted them if the news came in different then what was expected. 

06/27/2008  Economic Data

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is a component of the monthly Personal Income report. It is a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services. The PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator and markets tend to be extremely sensitive to unexpected changes to the reported numbers. As inflation and expectations of future inflation rates change, the markets adjust Colorado Online Mortgage interest rates to reflect those changes.   The fact that the actual Core PCE come in lower then expected indicated that inflationary pressures were weaker then anticipated by the market.  This will create buying demand in the market and will help lower Colorado Online Mortgage rates.

Consumer Sentiment, like Consumer Confidence measure how people feel our economic situation is.  A strong report typically indicates stronger then expected expenditures by consumers.  A weak report indicates consumer’s propensity to save.  When people are not spending, economic stimulus does not take place.  Poor economic stimulus activities will increases the demand for bonds and as a result lower the price for Colorado Online Mortgage rates.  Our current Consumer Sentiment reading is at its lowest level in 20 years and appears to be motivating people to save.  This will help Colorado Online Mortgage rates over time.

In conclusion, most of the economic data seems to positive for Colorado Online Mortgage rates.  We are hoping to see Colorado Online Mortgage rates continue their downward momentum.  We will need to stay tuned to all the economic data influencing our markets over the next week or so.  We should drop a bit over the next few days. 

Please call me with your Colorado Online Mortgage questions.

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates saw very little movement today.  The only major economic report to be released today was the Consumer Confidence numbers.  It appears that Consumer Confidence is at an all time low and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates did see some action because of this.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates dropped a bit but not enough to make any type of rate change in the lender rate sheets.  Most of what will impact the market will be released tomorrow and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will certainly see some action because of this.  Listed below I have a simple break down of the reports released today and what we can expect tomorrow:

Consumer Confidence fell to a record low 50.0, which was a lot worse then the 56.0 expectation set in the market last week.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will see some improvements based on this information alone.  Consumer Confidence has a direct correlation to consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of the economy. Consumer Confidence also has some correlation with joblessness, inflation, and real income. Typically only changes of five points or more are considered significant.  We had an 8.2 point drop from when the report was last issued and a 6 point drop from what was expected.  This should have had some strong impacts in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but so far it appears the FOMC is taking center stage.  There are other pressures that change consumer spending other than consumer confidence, inflation, joblessness, and regional business issues. Consumer Confidence is used to predict the direction of Consumer Spending but because of other influences, higher Confidence won’t always lead to higher Spending.  Higher Spending numbers could be in direct relation to higher inflation.  This would be bad for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  However this months report should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates for now.

Two Other Reports released today Richmond Fed Survey and Case-Shiller Price index numbers play separate roles in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but not enough to be considered a mover and a shaker.  Richmond Fed Survey works similar to the Empire State report and reports on manufacturing areas.  The report indicated a reduction in manufacturing demand which is a sign that our economy appears to be retracting.  The Price Shiller Price Index which monitors price changes in 10 different cities seemed to indicate that pricing is down which should be good news for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I only briefly talk about these because it does not impact the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets enough to make rates move.  However they were released today and the numbers seem to favor Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates so I wanted to mention them.

FOMC Meeting will conclude tomorrow and reports will begin to leak in about what was discussed in the meeting.  The first thing that will be determined is the FOMC action.  Action normally relates to what the FOMC has decided to do to short term interest rates.  If no action is taken on Short-Term Interest rates, the FOMC will signal that Economic Stimulus continues to be its main course of action.  This will be good for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  If Short Term interest rates are increased then the FOMC will be combating inflation which is very negative for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I believe that the FOMC will leave rates alone and that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will react positively.  We just need to stay tuned to see if the board was split or not on this decision and we will need to watch for any major inflationary discussions.

Colorado Online Mortgage rates see no movement in the market today.  In the absence of any real economic data, investors found themselves searching the headlines for information.  The stock market lost 220 points today as a result of instability and fear revolving around future prices in oil.  Futures trade a lot higher out of Fear that the middle east could have future supply issues, based on a growing concern about Israel’s military intentions towards Iran.  Investors in general are taking a wait and see approach and volume in the MBS market was low.  Colorado Online Mortgage pricing did improve a bit, but not enough to make any real changes to our current Colorado Online Mortgage rates. 

Today the stock market saw a variety of blue chip companies reporting poor profit expectations.  Ford and GMC both have indicated considerable profit losses due to the decreased demand for low gas efficient vehicles.  Ford also announced that it would delay its release of the new Ford F-150 until projected demand warranted the release.  Colorado Online Mortgage rates should have seen bigger improvements with the release of this information, but investors were not quick to react.  I believe that investors are still concerned about the inflationary pressures reported on late last week which may be steering there current buying habits.  I would not be to concern about the lack of movement today; this is expected when investors are left without any real economic data to base their decisions on.  I expect Colorado Online Mortgage rates to react with a little more predictability early next week, when Consumer Sentiment releases their primary data on Tuesday.  We will also see some movement again on Wednesday when Durable Goods Index report its numbers.  Both these reports are expected to come in low and if these reports meet expectations, we will see Colorado Online Mortgage rates improve.  Our recommendation continues to be a FLOAT recommendation and we are hoping that the information released next week creates the momentum we need to see our Fixed Colorado Online Mortgage rate programs back down to 6.0%.  Right now we will need about two weeks of improved rate movement before we can have 6.0% offered to you. 

We have some troubling issues to face in the market especially in the financial sectors of our economy.  Today I saw a new report indicating that our current credit debt has exceeded our mortgage debt in this country.  Never before have we had Credit debt exceed mortgage debt and the results of this may not be felt for some time.  Like the mortgage industry, if it is not carefully monitored, could have even greater repercussions then what we are seeing with mortgage debt today.  Only time will tell us if we are making the right decisions by offering the amount of credit currently circulating in our economy.  Keep in mind the reason Mortgage debt is such a major issue is because just about anyone could qualify at one time.  Well it appears that anyone with a pulse today can now get credit card approval.  What has me concern with this is given the choice of what not to pay during tough financial times, normally the consumer chooses to stop paying on credit before paying on their home. 

Both my posts today came late and I apologize for that.  I also noticed that they appear to be quite negative and it should be noted that I do feel we have hope in the near future.  Our Economic system is better then any other economic system in the world and because we allow the markets to dictate market corrections we will see improvements eventually.  I will be available to you all weekend if you have questions.  Call me with your next Colorado Online Mortgage request and see how well I try to service you needs.  God Bless and Good NightJ

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have dropped based on today’s economic reports.  So far it appears that the market has not reacted in a way typical for the type of data that was released.  Jobless Claims, Leading indicators, and Philadelphia Fed’s Index all came in at expectations, take a minute and review the impacts of these reports below:

Jobless Claims came in at 381K a bit higher then the 375K consensus.  It is obvious that we still have some major issues as it relates to Jobless Claims.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively from this report.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate. The four-week moving average and continuing claims are watched more closely for changes. The labor market is considered to be improving when the four-week moving average goes below 400,000. If unemployment goes low enough it can put wage pressure on the economy and can cause increases in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

The Leading Indicators report is composed of ten indicators designed to forecast the strength of the economy six to nine months into the future. The ten indicators are picked from different parts of the economy and are chosen because of their relevancy and accuracy. They are each given equal weight when applied to the composite index.  The LEI can predict peaks and troughs in the economy but because many of the indictors are released individually before the LEI composite index is released, Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets rarely watch the report very closely.  The Consensus for LEI was 0.00 and the actual LEI came in at .1.  In short this LEI report shows that we are still in a slow moving economy and it appears that we will see this continue for at least another 9 months.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will continue to improve as long as our Economy shows signs of weakness.

The Philadelphia Fed’s index is a monthly survey of manufacturers located around the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Companies surveyed indicate the direction of change in their overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. They are asked questions regarding employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968. The index signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. The Philadelphia Fed Index is considered to be a good indicator of changes in everything from employment, general prices, and conditions within the manufacturing industry. Manufacturing is considered to be a precursor to future economic conditions and it lays the groundwork toward economic recovery. For example, in a poor economy if manufacturing starts to pick up there is an expectation that the economy will soon follow behind.  This index isn’t a big Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Market mover, but the results found in the survey can indicate what to expect from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (which comes out a few days later and covers the entire U.S.).  The Philadelphia Fed’s index came in at -17% which was considerably lower then the consensus.  This should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

In Conclusion:

You can easily see by today’s market that economic reports do not always create interest rate movements that are predictable.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively, but so far the market has not responded as expected.  So why are we seeing Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates trending up today.  I believe that a majority of the interest rate increases seen today is due to profit takers.  Having MBS prices pricing out low over the last few days many investors buying early in the week are selling today for a quick return.  I don’t believe that the market will sustain the selling spree and we should see Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates start improving again next week.  If you LOCK today you will be LOCKING in at a low point, however we should drop below today’s rate sometime next week.  This of course assumes that the Economic data continues to come in as expected.

Give me a call with your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate questions. I will be happy to assist you.

Colorado Mortgage rates have improved for the 2^nd straight day, giving us hope that Colorado Mortgage rates may start looking competitive sooner then later.  Most of the Colorado Mortgage rate improvements can be contributed to growing concern for the economy and a decreased emphasis in inflation.  It only took two days and 4 separate speeches by the Federal Reserve to increase Colorado Mortgage rates by almost 1%, it may take weeks to recover from the increases.  So far most of the data being released seems to favor Colorado Mortgage rate improvement.  We saw this happen yesterday with the release of the Producer Price Index.  Producer Price Index came in as expected and all the hype related to inflation concerns seem to dissipate with the report. 

Today we have no scheduled Economic Reports to help the Market.  Investors will be looking at Headlines to determine their buying motivation in the Colorado Mortgage Securities market.  We has some very unexpected news hit the securities (stock) market today as Fed Ex reported earnings far worse then expected.  The stock market appears to be down over 100 points and may hit the 11K mark by the end of this week.  Colorado Mortgage Rates always do well when news in the security markets appears to be bad.  Morgan Stanly also reported very negative profit news and their stock is currently trading about 10% lower then yesterday.  So in a day of very little economic data it appears that the headlines have increased to momentum to buy bonds.  This new demand will increase the price of bonds and lower Colorado Mortgage Rates.  Take a look at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news if you get some time to compare other market moving indicators, but regardless of which site you tune into it is clear that you will not lose by FLOATING until tomorrow. 

Stay tuned for tomorrows leading indicator report, Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Index to get a step up on whether locking will be necessary.  Everything I am seeing in the market seems to indicate that the economic data due to be released should come in as expected and no real surprises are in store.  If that is true then Colorado Mortgage Rates will continue its downward trend.  We learned something over the last week or so and that is the Federal Reserve is not as predictable as they have been in the past.  I still have a lot of faith in Mr. Bernanke but he still has a lot of critics out there thinking that he may be in over his head.  Colorado Mortgage Rates appear to be impacting new loan applications which have hit its lowest mark since 2006.  When you are shopping for a Colorado Mortgage it is critical that you work with someone who understands the market.  We will give you the Colorado Mortgage that makes sense for you.  Call me with your Colorado Mortgage questions and have a great day.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Rates appear to be on their way down today based on what the Mortgage Backed Securities market did today.  We had a variety of economic reports released which finally moved Colorado Home Mortgage Rates down for the 1^st time in about 10 days.  Inflation continues to be the primary concern for investors and was certainly a major concern expressed by the Federal Reserve in the last week or so.  We now have all the inflationary data in for the month of May, and it appears that the Federal Reserve may have over stated the inflation problem, at least for the moment.  Colorado Home Mortgage Rates began to improve a bit after Producer Price Index figures came in line with expectations.  The Federal Reserve has expressed its concern for higher inflationary pressures, but the data so far indicates that inflation is in line with expectation no major surprises.  Colorado Home Mortgage Rates have been climbing based on the expectation that Inflation reports would come in considerably higher then the current consensus put in place.  So far it appears the investors are getting closer to what true inflation is as apposed to the Federal Reserves current expectations. 

The Federal Reserve will need to watch that it does not express too much hype in relation to the information they release, otherwise they may loose some credibility in the market.  Obviously when the Federal Reserve speaks the market listens, but this over communication policy may create market gaps for the Federal Reserve, versus desired market movement.  Allen Greenspan had a history of keeping information close by and releasing the information at times of relevancy.  Colorado Home Mortgage markets reacted very quickly when the information came out, because the information was relevant to what they intended to do.  The Federal Reserve expressed concern over the last week or so, indicating that they would take steps to combat inflation.  They went as far as insinuating that a short term interest rate hike would be needed to slow down inflationary pressures.  This type of communication in the market would have definitely lead to an interest rate hike in the next Federal Reserve meeting, however Bernanke’s approach appears for the moment, to cry wolf with no actual action.  Will this benefit his creditability in the future?  Probably not.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates have always drawn its movements from market action, and anyone trading in MBS knows that reacting first can make the difference in their portfolios bottom line.  The Federal Reserve is a tool for investors and they count on that to be accurate and predictable.  I know that we have been used to one way for a long time, and who knows, maybe Bernanke’s new approach will pay off.  So far it appears that investors are left confused and frustrated by the lack there of, in the predictability of the Federal Reserves current action plan. 

Colorado Home Mortgage rates reacted to four economic reports: PPI, Core PPI, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production.  Listed below are the actual data report figures and their impacts on the Colorado Home Mortgage Rate market.

Producer Price Index reports on inflationary pressures between business to business and typically involves overseas transactions.  These inflationary numbers will outline global inflationary pressures and pressures brought into our domestic consumer numbers.  The index showed a 1.4% increase which was a little higher then the 1.0% expert consensus which investors had hoped for.  Normally that would have created some issues for Colorado Home Mortgage Rates, however after all the fears tied around inflation, it was not the surprise everyone was preparing for.  Core Producer Price Index which takes out the highly volatile Food and Energy components actually only increased by .2% which was exactly what investors were hoping for.  This information sent a vary strong sign that inflation is still a bit higher then what investors would like to see, but not the catastrophic issue the headlines played them out to be.  Overall the news was positive for Colorado Home Mortgage Rates.

Housing Starts came in just below 1 million its lowest level since 1999.  This may be a result of the Home Builders Associations current sentiment readings released yesterday, which indicated major concern by builders on the state of the housing market.  Fear of inventory drives down inventory supplies and as a result lowers the number of home permits being issued.  Colorado Home Mortgage rates will also react positive to this as investors look for safer investment opportunities during tough economic times.  The consensus was that housing starts would be around 980K and the actual Housing Starts came in at 975K.  Not a big difference, but keep in mind housing permit activity is always higher in the summer months which make the drop even more significant.  This will be monitored by the Colorado Home Mortgage rate market, but should not make a big difference on what Colorado Home Mortgage rates will do.

Finally, Industrial Production numbers were released.  The consensus on the Industrial Production numbers was for a 0.1% advancement in production, but the actual data indicated a -0.2% drop.  This was significant and helped move Colorado Home Mortgage Rates back down.  Industrial Production numbers currently measures the change in the production of the nation’s industrial industries as well as a measure of their industrial capacity.  The level of industrial production divided by the level of industrial capacity gives the capacity utilization rate. The manufacturing sector accounts for one quarter of the economy and is weighted heavily in predicting economic growth.  Stronger economic growth typically leads to higher inflation which is bad for Colorado Home Mortgage rates.  What is hard to compare on a report like this is how much of a production increase is good.  With economic numbers coming in at zero or below it seems that anything tied to economic growth leads investors to fear inflation.  This trend seems to be more prevalent today then ever before.  Economic growth is a part of our economic evolution and some growth is needed however it appears that any growth causes Colorado Home Mortgage rates to increase out of fear. 

We have a long way to go before investors begin to react in a predictable manner, but in the mean time please call me with your Colorado Home Mortgage questions.

Daniel

Colorado Home Loan Rates should have seen another day of Colorado Home Loan rate improvements, but so far it appears that the market is unaffected.  NY Empire State Index surveys a group of manufacturers across New York in a variety of industries.  The participants of this survey normally involve company Presidents or CEO.  About 250 surveys are released and about 100 are returned.  The survey itself asks 10 or so questions as it relates to the Manufacturing sector.  These questions are designed to signal economic movements and inflationary pressures.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by survey results, because investors use that in determining future MBS pricings.  Obviously when MBS pricing increases Colorado Home Loan rates decrease.  A negative report typically causes Colorado Home Loan rates to drop.  Today’s report came in at a -8.7 and the consensus by leading experts was that the report would come in around -2.4.  Last month the NY Empire State Index came in at a -3.2, and it was expected that some improvement would be seen over May numbers.  The fact of the matter is that the report came in considerably lower then expected and it may have been what we needed to stop the up hill climb seen with Colorado Home Loan rates over the last week or so. 

Colorado Home Loan Rates were also impacted slightly by NAHB Sentiment index.  This index rates how the National Association of Home Builders perceives the current state of the business.  Obviously depending on how they think the economy and the home sale market are going, will dictate the amount of supply they generate.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by Home Sale Supplies but not directly.  This impact comes in a round about way, but Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted.  When you have an abundant supply for Home Sales the price of homes tend to go down.   Lower Home prices mixed with high Colorado Home Loan balances make it much more difficult to sell.  When home owners are unable to sell, Foreclosure rates increase, which increases the number of Mortgage Defaults.  Mortgage Defaults increases the risk associated with MBS creating a risk premium which is returned to the investors in the form of higher interest rates.  This is how Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by high home inventories.  NAHB Sentiment index registered a reading of 18 one point lower then last month.  Anything showing a reading below 50 signals negative feelings toward the current state of business.  When the NAHB Sentiment is low, normally new home building numbers are low which is good for Colorado Home Loan rates. 

In short Economic reports released today should have been positive for Colorado Home Loan rates.  Though we saw no immediate decreases in Colorado Home Loan rates, we also did not see any increases.  Right now we continue to face real inflationary fears, luckily these fears have not be substantiated by any real economic reporting.  This does not mean I don’t believe we have inflationary pressure, it just means that the pressure may not be as great as people think.  Colorado Home Loan rates tend to react heavily on inflationary information and last week we experience some heavy movements.  I am hoping that tomorrows PPI (Producer Price Index) comes in lower then expected, if this happens we may begin to finally see Colorado Home Loan rates move down.  The only thing I have indicating that the numbers may come in lower, stems from the NY Empire State index which stated prices paid to distributors remained unchanged, according to the survey.  We will see if the survey got it right. 

The consensus on where PPI will come in at does appear to be high enough for me to believe that we are in a FLOAT situation for your Colorado Home Loan product. Colorado Home Loan rates remained unchanged today, and if PPI reports at or below expectation tomorrow we should begin to see Colorado Home Loan rates improve.  We also have our Industrial Production numbers due out and it appears at least for now that we may see this report come in reporting negative numbers.  A negative number on this report with a better then expected number for PPI will be the proof needed to decrease current inflationary fears.   Look for Colorado Home Loan rates to improve this week. I will give it a 70% favorable probability on this weeks rate sheets.  Let tomorrow be the judge on whether I get this one right or wrong.  Good Luck and let me know how I can help you with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Daniel   

Colorado Mortgage Rates appear to be on their way back.  We had a couple of economic reports to talk about today.  CPI, and Consumer Sentiment were released earlier this morning and both reports created some positive movement for Colorado Mortgage rates.  In a week were Colorado Mortgage Rates hit an all time High for the year, it was nice to see that Friday the 13^th created the relief we needed.  It is nice going into a weekend knowing that Colorado Mortgage Rates should not see any more increases for the week.  We will need to wait until next week to see if we can expect any additional relief as PPI will report on Tuesday.  Colorado Mortgage Rates will certainly see continued relief once the second component in the inflation reporting picture comes out.  We are hoping that Producer Price Index report comes in as expected.  Here are today’s Colorado Mortgage summaries:

Consumer Price Index is used to gauge changes in inflation and markets tend to be extremely sensitive to unexpected changes to the reported numbers. As inflation and expectations of future inflation rates change, the Colorado Mortgage markets adjust interest rates to reflect those changes. The effect of these changes is seen across all markets, equities, bonds and mortgage backed securities. As a general rule, higher inflation is negative for Colorado Mortgage markets.  Our CPI index reading came in at .6% which was actually slightly higher then expected, but not enough to create the surprises expected with inflation.  Colorado Mortgage Rates reacted very well to the information.  Core CPI which takes out some volitle components in the price index like food and energy, is believe to be the better measure for inflation  Core CPI came in at .2% which was exactly in line with expectations and again created some very positive movements in the Colorado Mortgage Markets.

Consumer Sentiment is used to gain insight into possible future consumer spending. It is almost identical to consumer confidence but it has two readings per month, preliminary and final readings. The consumer expectations portion is used for the leading economic indicators index.  Investors look at this to gain perspective on what people might do as it relates to spending.  High spending creates positive Economic movement.   Colorado Mortgage rates almost always increase when readings on Consumer Sentiment are high, Colorado Mortgage rates will also decrease when Consumer Sentiment readings are low.  Consumer Sentiment came in at  Surprising 56.7 which is the lowest reading since the double digit interest rate epidemic of the 1970’s.  Colorado Mortgage Rates definitely responded positively to this information. 

In Short we are recommending a FLOAT recommendation because nothing in the headlines or economic data seem to indicate any issues with Colorado Mortgage Rates going up.  You can also check out www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news to get some additional LOCK or FLOAT recommendations.  Right now we are just holding out for the last inflationary report of the month due out on Tuesday, until then have a great weekend and call me with your Colorado Mortgage Rate questions.

Daniel

Colorado Home Loan rates take another hard hit today as economic data signals appear to be heading in the right direction.  There were 4 major economic and headline pieces creating Colorado Home Loan rate movements in the Securities market.  Jobless claims, Import and Export Price index, Retail Sales, and finally key notes from Charles Plosser became the information of interest for Investors.  Colorado Home Loan rates did not do to well on the information released from these sources.  Listed below are the reports and their impacts.

Retail Sales were forecasted at a .5% growth.  The actual Growth from May was 1%, double the initial consensus.  Many experts believe that this created a major sell off in the Mortgage Backed Securities market and was today’s single biggest Colorado Home Loan rate mover.  Personally I believe that we should not have been surprised by the greater then expected numbers.  We are a society that likes to spend money, and with all the recent Tax return credits coming into the picture how could we not prepare for the increase in buying power.  Colorado Home Loan rates jumped up, but I don’t believe that Retail Sales was the primary reason for that.  The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Retail Sales is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending and is adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays. Strength in Retail Sales implies a strong economy and is usually negative for bond markets.  This negative push in the bond markets creates Price pressures which cause Colorado Home Loan rates to go up.

Colorado Home Loan rates did have some inflationary data tied to it today.  We had two things in the last 24 hours create negative attention on inflationary pressure.  The direct result is why I think Colorado Home Loan rates increased the way they did.  The first report was import and export price index.  Import and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation.  A better way to look at this is that this is a way for us to import inflation domestically.  If we are bringing in inflationary goods inflation increases here at home.  Colorado Home Loan rates hate anything to do with inflation whether it is here or abroad.  Chares Plosser spoke recently setting the stage yet again about the Federal Reserves concern for inflation.  He stated that this was his and the Federal Reserves biggest concern and that they would combat that at all costs.  He also noted that a fine line has to be set between fighting inflation and helping the economy grow.  These two indicators work inversely to each other and must be managed.  Colorado Home Loan rates obviously took another hard hit on inflationary talk and with so many members of the Federal Reserve bringing it up a real inflation problem is projected.  Luckily we have things in place and have learned our lessons from the 1970’s to ensure the obstacles that were present there do not repeat themselves today.  We certainly have all the components in line which can trigger Colorado Home Loan rates to go up like the 70’s but the Federal Reserve is committed and will sacrifice economic growth to avoid inflation problems.

On a lighter note for Colorado Home Loan rates, Jobless Claims came in higher then expected which should have helped Colorado Home Loan rates a bit.  Honestly all it did was slow down the up hill climb in Colorado Home Loan rates already being felt in the market.  Jobless claims came in at 384K much higher then the 370K consensus expectations.  Tomorrow will be a big day for Colorado Home Loan rates and should be monitored closely.  If the CPI report comes in at or below expectation, Colorado Home Loan rates will improve or at least stop its current up hill trends.  If CPI (Consumer Price Index) Comes in higher then expected watch out we may see Colorado Home Loan rates jump up in the high 6% range before the end of the week.  We will also need to keep a close eye on PPI next week this is the second price index report and will give us the final look at last months inflationary pressure.  Luckily it appears that the consensus has prepared us by having the expectation set higher then last month so it does not appear that they are too far out on what it should come in at.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be difficult to predict until both reports are released.  If both reports come in lower then expected we may see some nice gains by the end of next week.  LOCK if you can get 6.0% otherwise you may as well ride the wave for a week or so, Colorado Home Loan rates are destine to get some of the losses back, if anything the lenders have way too much safety premium currently built in.  This means that as soon as things come down Colorado Home Loan rates will improve as investors lift their current conservative thresholds between the Mortgage Backed Securities market and the Whole Sale Lending markets.  Please call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Daniel