Colorado Mortgage rates will see a lot of volatility tomorrow. We have a variety of economic reports to be released and so far the economic data appears to be sending mixed reviews. You can learn a lot more about what direction the market appears to be heading and the momentum driving the market by visiting www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news This site will go into detail about the economic reports being released and how it impacts Colorado Mortgage rates. Here is the data so far:
Retail sales came in lower then expected which normally drives Colorado Mortgage rates down, but the report is broken down into several sections. These sections are looked at separately and by removing the auto sales component, retail sales actually came in a lot higher then expected. This was one of the reasons Colorado Mortgage rates jumped up as much as they did over the last 48 hours. The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand. This is important because it is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending and is adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays. Big revisions to reports can be made even to old reports from several months past. Fluctuations in sales figures can occur because of price changes and not due to changes in consumer demand. Strength in Retail Sales implies a strong economy and is usually negative for Colorado Mortgage markets.
Today we saw CPI reported and it did come in better then expected. The news definitely created some confusion in the market, because everything indicated inflationary pressures to come in high. The better then expected data helped Colorado Mortgage rates, but not enough to make up all the ground lost in the last 3 days. Consumer Price Index creates a lot of movement in Colorado Mortgage rates. It is one of the biggest inflationary reports and tends to be watched very closely by investors. The report came in .1% better then expected, which is great news for Colorado Mortgage rates. Colorado Mortgage rate improved slightly on the news today and appears to be making up lost ground. CPI measures the price of a predetermined set of goods and services purchased by urban consumers (80% of the population). CPI is the most widely cited inflation indicator and is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs. CPI tracks prices of goods in several main categories including food and beverage, energy, housing, apparel, transportation, medical, education and others. Excluding food and energy, which are the more volatile components, gives what is commonly referred to as the “core rate.” CPI is used to gauge changes in inflation and markets tend to be extremely sensitive to unexpected changes to the reported numbers. As inflation and expectations of future inflation rates change, the markets adjust interest rates to reflect those changes. The effect of these changes is seen across all markets, equities, bonds and mortgage backed securities. As a general rule, higher inflation is negative for bond market which causes Colorado Mortgage rates to climb.
Colorado Mortgage rates should see even more movement tomorrow when Industrial Production and Jobless Claims data is released. Both reports tend to make the market react depending on the data released. Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate. The four-week moving average and continuing claims are watched more closely for changes. The labor market is considered to be improving when the four-week moving average goes below 400,000. If unemployment goes low enough it can put wage pressure on the economy and can cause increases in interest rates.
Industrial Production measures the change in the production of the nation’s factories, mines and utilities as well as a measure of their industrial capacity and the extent available resources among factories, utilities and mines are being used. The level of industrial production divided by the level of industrial capacity gives the capacity utilization rate. The manufacturing sector accounts for one quarter of the economy and the capacity utilization rate shows how much factory capacity is in use. Industrial Production is one of the major reports measuring economic activity. Stronger economic growth typically leads to higher inflation, so Colorado Mortgage markets usual react negatively to stronger than expected economic growth.
Thanks for reading along and call me with your Colorado Mortgage questions.