Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Lock recommendation in effect
Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have dropped based on today’s economic reports. So far it appears that the market has not reacted in a way typical for the type of data that was released. Jobless Claims, Leading indicators, and Philadelphia Fed’s Index all came in at expectations, take a minute and review the impacts of these reports below:
Jobless Claims came in at 381K a bit higher then the 375K consensus. It is obvious that we still have some major issues as it relates to Jobless Claims. Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively from this report. Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate. The four-week moving average and continuing claims are watched more closely for changes. The labor market is considered to be improving when the four-week moving average goes below 400,000. If unemployment goes low enough it can put wage pressure on the economy and can cause increases in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.
The Leading Indicators report is composed of ten indicators designed to forecast the strength of the economy six to nine months into the future. The ten indicators are picked from different parts of the economy and are chosen because of their relevancy and accuracy. They are each given equal weight when applied to the composite index. The LEI can predict peaks and troughs in the economy but because many of the indictors are released individually before the LEI composite index is released, Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets rarely watch the report very closely. The Consensus for LEI was 0.00 and the actual LEI came in at .1. In short this LEI report shows that we are still in a slow moving economy and it appears that we will see this continue for at least another 9 months. Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will continue to improve as long as our Economy shows signs of weakness.
The Philadelphia Fed’s index is a monthly survey of manufacturers located around the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Companies surveyed indicate the direction of change in their overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. They are asked questions regarding employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968. The index signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. The Philadelphia Fed Index is considered to be a good indicator of changes in everything from employment, general prices, and conditions within the manufacturing industry. Manufacturing is considered to be a precursor to future economic conditions and it lays the groundwork toward economic recovery. For example, in a poor economy if manufacturing starts to pick up there is an expectation that the economy will soon follow behind. This index isn’t a big Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Market mover, but the results found in the survey can indicate what to expect from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (which comes out a few days later and covers the entire U.S.). The Philadelphia Fed’s index came in at -17% which was considerably lower then the consensus. This should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.
In Conclusion:
You can easily see by today’s market that economic reports do not always create interest rate movements that are predictable. Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively, but so far the market has not responded as expected. So why are we seeing Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates trending up today. I believe that a majority of the interest rate increases seen today is due to profit takers. Having MBS prices pricing out low over the last few days many investors buying early in the week are selling today for a quick return. I don’t believe that the market will sustain the selling spree and we should see Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates start improving again next week. If you LOCK today you will be LOCKING in at a low point, however we should drop below today’s rate sometime next week. This of course assumes that the Economic data continues to come in as expected.
Give me a call with your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate questions. I will be happy to assist you.
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