Colorado Home Mortgage Loan

Colorado Home Loan rates take another hard hit today as economic data signals appear to be heading in the right direction.  There were 4 major economic and headline pieces creating Colorado Home Loan rate movements in the Securities market.  Jobless claims, Import and Export Price index, Retail Sales, and finally key notes from Charles Plosser became the information of interest for Investors.  Colorado Home Loan rates did not do to well on the information released from these sources.  Listed below are the reports and their impacts.

Retail Sales were forecasted at a .5% growth.  The actual Growth from May was 1%, double the initial consensus.  Many experts believe that this created a major sell off in the Mortgage Backed Securities market and was today’s single biggest Colorado Home Loan rate mover.  Personally I believe that we should not have been surprised by the greater then expected numbers.  We are a society that likes to spend money, and with all the recent Tax return credits coming into the picture how could we not prepare for the increase in buying power.  Colorado Home Loan rates jumped up, but I don’t believe that Retail Sales was the primary reason for that.  The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Retail Sales is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending and is adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays. Strength in Retail Sales implies a strong economy and is usually negative for bond markets.  This negative push in the bond markets creates Price pressures which cause Colorado Home Loan rates to go up.

Colorado Home Loan rates did have some inflationary data tied to it today.  We had two things in the last 24 hours create negative attention on inflationary pressure.  The direct result is why I think Colorado Home Loan rates increased the way they did.  The first report was import and export price index.  Import and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation.  A better way to look at this is that this is a way for us to import inflation domestically.  If we are bringing in inflationary goods inflation increases here at home.  Colorado Home Loan rates hate anything to do with inflation whether it is here or abroad.  Chares Plosser spoke recently setting the stage yet again about the Federal Reserves concern for inflation.  He stated that this was his and the Federal Reserves biggest concern and that they would combat that at all costs.  He also noted that a fine line has to be set between fighting inflation and helping the economy grow.  These two indicators work inversely to each other and must be managed.  Colorado Home Loan rates obviously took another hard hit on inflationary talk and with so many members of the Federal Reserve bringing it up a real inflation problem is projected.  Luckily we have things in place and have learned our lessons from the 1970’s to ensure the obstacles that were present there do not repeat themselves today.  We certainly have all the components in line which can trigger Colorado Home Loan rates to go up like the 70’s but the Federal Reserve is committed and will sacrifice economic growth to avoid inflation problems.

On a lighter note for Colorado Home Loan rates, Jobless Claims came in higher then expected which should have helped Colorado Home Loan rates a bit.  Honestly all it did was slow down the up hill climb in Colorado Home Loan rates already being felt in the market.  Jobless claims came in at 384K much higher then the 370K consensus expectations.  Tomorrow will be a big day for Colorado Home Loan rates and should be monitored closely.  If the CPI report comes in at or below expectation, Colorado Home Loan rates will improve or at least stop its current up hill trends.  If CPI (Consumer Price Index) Comes in higher then expected watch out we may see Colorado Home Loan rates jump up in the high 6% range before the end of the week.  We will also need to keep a close eye on PPI next week this is the second price index report and will give us the final look at last months inflationary pressure.  Luckily it appears that the consensus has prepared us by having the expectation set higher then last month so it does not appear that they are too far out on what it should come in at.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be difficult to predict until both reports are released.  If both reports come in lower then expected we may see some nice gains by the end of next week.  LOCK if you can get 6.0% otherwise you may as well ride the wave for a week or so, Colorado Home Loan rates are destine to get some of the losses back, if anything the lenders have way too much safety premium currently built in.  This means that as soon as things come down Colorado Home Loan rates will improve as investors lift their current conservative thresholds between the Mortgage Backed Securities market and the Whole Sale Lending markets.  Please call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Daniel

Colorado Home Loan rates hit a new summer high.  Most Colorado Home Loan providers are quoting around 6.25% or 6.5% for a conventional 30 year fixed Colorado Home Loan rate product.  We will continue to honor 6.0% and will not charge any points.  The hit for the new rate will be absorbed by us.  Colorado Home Loan rates took on some extra baggage when today’s Jobless Claims report came in better then expected.  Keep in mind that when Economic data shows signs that our economy is on a path to recovery, Colorado Home Loan rates will take a hit.  The reason for that is that investors will pull money out of the Mortgage Backed Securities market and will in return leave it in the equities market. 

Jobless Claims came in at 357K and the expectations were set at 370K.  Colorado Home Loan rates reacted negatively to the data.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate.
This report impacts Colorado Home Loan rates because if unemployment goes low enough it can put the demand for higher wages in the market.  The higher wage demand puts pressure on the economy and can cause increases in Colorado Home Loan interest rates.  The Bank of England, which has similar responsibilities to the Federal Reserve did not move interest rates up or down which was expected by the market.  The combination of the two reports normally would not have drastic impacts on the Colorado Home Loan market, but tied to comments made by the Federal Reserve yesterday, made a bigger impact on Colorado Home Loan rates then it normally would have.

Inflation continues to be the #1 influencer on where Colorado Home Loan rates are expected to go.  Higher inflation will devalue long term investments.  The lower price pressure requires a higher Colorado Home Loan rate to attract other investors.  We have implemented a FLOAT recommendation which you can read in detail at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com.  In the mean time we will need to prepare ourselves for the Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rates which will create some movements in the Colorado Home Loan rate market.  Industry experts have been extremely low in their estimations as it relates to forecasting these economic data reports.  If the trend continues and the consensus on where the data will come in is still low, Colorado Home Loan rates will go up again.  6.0% is sounding more and more like the rate of choice and if it is offered to you would not be a bad Colorado Home Loan rate to lock in.  We have jumped a bit in the last 3 weeks and if you believe Colorado Home Loan rates may improve then wait until you feel like locking your Colorado Home Loan.  I only recommend the FLOAT option today, because much of the data released today have already had the impacts hit the market.  Colorado Home Loan rates started the day off worse and it appears that as the day progresses that much of the loss from today’s economic reports will be regained in the Colorado Home Loan rate market. 

As I stated before tomorrows two economic reports will create movement in the Colorado Home Loan market who much movement will be realized when the reports are released.  Nonfarm Payroll data is the top number of the Employment Report, one of the most highly anticipated pieces of economic data. The headline figure is often a major Colorado Home Loan market mover with the labor market a strong predictor of the strength of the economy. The Unemployment Rate is obtained from a different data sample, and together the two reports provide the most comprehensive picture of the labor market. The monthly reports are, however, very volatile and subject to large revisions in future releases. Long term trends in the report’s data are a better gauge for the true state of the labor market. Strength in the labor market implies a strong economy and is usually negative for Colorado Home Loan markets.  Unemployment will also be released with this report and is the second component in what investors look at in the reported employment numbers.  Colorado Home Loan rates will either jump or of go down after the release of these figures.

It is very hard to determine where we need to lock your Colorado Home Loan in the next 24 hours, but it appears that for the moment the Mortgage Backed Securities market is trying to make up for some of the ground lost earlier this morning.  I would FLOAT your Colorado Home Loan rate until late this afternoon and would lock then if you want to take the risk out of the market.  For those willing to ride it out, it appears that we have a lot of ground that we could make up that could be regained if the employment numbers come in worse then expected. 

Remember to call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.  My Colorado Home Loan Rate Lock Recommendation remains at 6.0% we will see what Friday brings us until then.

Best of Luck

Daniel

We are seeing some volatility in the Mortgage Backed Securities market this morning and Colorado Home Loan rates appear to be holding steady for the moment.  There appears to be a lot of buzz on the Hill related to a variety of FHA sponsored bills which were approved by the house yesterday.  The Frank bill approved yesterday in the house has proposed a $15 Billion dollar bail out on homes currently facing Foreclosure.  The bill would forgive the balances on Colorado Home Loans that exceed the current property prices.  These lenders would then refinance the Colorado Home Loan at a balance closely reflecting actual value.  The difference would be paid out by the government.  Now on the surface it appears to be a good program, especially if your owe more on your home then it is worth.  Colorado Home Loan programs have not faced the same obstacles as other loans in other states.  Florida, Nevada, Michigan, and California just to name a few have seen home prices drop more then 20% in the last year and many people trying to refinance just can’t because of the current property value issues.  Colorado Home Loans based in parts of Denver are facing similar issues.  These Colorado Home Loan programs were designed to be refinanced in two years with the hope that property values would go up.  Instead many consumers are faced with Colorado Home Loan programs that have adjusted to a point where the home can no longer be afforded.  This is a major issue in our foreclosure market today and though I believe the bill has good intentions, ultimately the results will not favor the market.  I continue to support my philosophy that the Government should not intervene in any market activity.  Normally when you have governments trying to push markets in one direction or another, the market tends to react poorly.

Colorado Home Loan programs were underwritten by a variety of Lenders understanding the risk associated with them.  The lenders who approved the loans should be held accountable for the type of Colorado Home Loan programs they approved.  We are in a very tough market which will recover.  We simply need the markets to resolve the issues on their own.  Only when you have the absence of outside influences will the market correct itself.  Colorado Home Loan rates do appear to be holding steady around the 5.75% range we LOCKED in at yesterday, but it appears that we may be heading for some tough days ahead.  We will continue to recommend Locking and at this point you should not be getting quoted anything above 5.875%.  If you have a Colorado Home Loan rate above that please call me and give me a chance to see what I can do for you.  In the mean time have a great weekend and a special happy Mothers Day to my Wife, We just found out yesterday that we are expecting baby #2.  Jaimee I love you.  If you want to read more blog information go to www.coloradomortgagebanking.com select blog #1

Daniel 

GDP growth came in at .6% which is only .1% higher then the expected.  When expectations are exceeded investor confidence is high.  When investor confidence is high investors tend to pull money out of Mortgage Backed Securities and into Stocks.  This will cause Colorado Home Loan rates to increase as the price of bonds decrease.  This was not the case today, primarily because it did not beat expectations by much and more importantly the current GDP level still sucks.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be unaffected by the higher numbers here.  With in the GDP report you have a number of variables that are analyzed to get GDP numbers.  Durable and Non-Durable goods spending was down and reported lower then any reading since 1991.  We had a recession going on during this time.  Colorado Home Loan rates tend to improve on this type of information.  In fact all of the numbers in the GDP report came in much lower then expected except for Services spending which was the only variable to show any type of growth.  It also was the only reason we had GDP come in higher then expected.

Chicago’s PMI reported a bit higher then expected as well.  The expectation was 47.5 and the data came in at 48.3.  Again, not enough to make any major shifts in the Colorado Home Loan market.  Remember from a previous blog that when the index number comes in below 50.0 manufacturing actually experiences a contraction in the market.  If GDP contracted it would be defined as a Recession (just though you should know).  So even though PMI reported higher it still reported contraction.  Contraction in manufacturing causes concerns for economic growth.  These concerns send investors back to buying safe investments like Mortgage Backed Securities.  When Security demand is up, Colorado Home Loan rates drop.  So all in all, this report did not surprise anyone enough to make the Colorado Home Loan market move.

We did have one inflationary report come out and that was Employment costs.  It was projected to be up .8% however it came in at .7%.  Not much of a difference, but it does send a signal that inflation is not getting out of control.  Anytime I report good inflation numbers I want to put a little caution as it relates to oil.  Oil will be the thorn in our markets foot.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be impacted by inflationary pressures due to oil.  It is inevitable, to what extent will still be determined.  Regardless this report will have a positive impact on Colorado Home Loan rates.

Finally, we did have one employment report come out.  Like all employment reports it is a survey done by an independent survey company.  Some employment reports have significant credibility like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and some have less credibility.  ADP employment numbers indicated an increase in jobs by 10,000 for April, though not always accurate can give us a preview of what may come.  High Job numbers indicate economic recovery and in return cause the demand for Mortgage Backed Securities to drop.  As a result Colorado Home Loan rates will go up. 

Looking at all the reports that are out today and waiting in anticipation of what will be released by the Federal Open Market Committee it is clear why Colorado Home Loan rates appear to be flat right now.  I just checked the Mortgage Backed Securities ticker and it appears we are slightly up in price.  This means a slight improvement for Colorado Home Loan rates.  Not enough to make the rate change, but at least a good directional indicator.  The FOMC will certainly create movement later today and it appears that investors are standing by in anticipation of this information.  I will keep you posted on the information released and for the time being will continue to keep our FLOAT recommendation for Colorado Home Loan rates.  We are in for a bumpy ride, but waiting can pay off in the long run.  If you are not prepared for the ride we should have locked you yesterdayJ  At this point you are buckled in and we a hearing the clanks of the rollercoaster as it goes up the ride.  We are hoping that we hear the sweat sound of air blowing through our hair as we ride the coaster down.  The FOMC will be the deciding factor for this.  In the mean time Good Luck and Call me with your Colorado home loan questions.

Colorado Home Loan Rates hit 6.0% today for the first time in 6 months.  Though the rate appears to be disappointing we have yet to hit our 12 month high.  Colorado Home Loan Rates spiked as high as 6.25% back in November and it appears that rates today will be hitting its ceiling of residence at least for the moment.  Given the current market condition it appears that we may be seeing some relief in the weeks to come.  Over the last couple of days I have been writing about Colorado Home Loan rates and how Corporate profits have dominated investor behavior, while Economic reports have been ignored.   Well we finally had a report come in so poorly today that it could not be ignored any further.  Colorado Home Loan rates rebounded a bit, but not enough to change current Colorado Home Loan interest rates.  What did happen is that the upward climb we have been facing with Colorado Home Loan rates have finally stopped, at least for the time being. Colorado Home Loan rates started the morning in negative territory due to overnight selling of Mortgage Backed Securities.  It appeared that we were going to have another terrible day, but finally we had an economic report come in so low investors could no longer ignore it.  As a result we have seen Colorado Home Loan rates make up for a majority of the losses experienced in overnight trading.   Consumer Sentiment numbers were expected to come in low, so we were not surprised by preliminary reports indicating low expectations in this category.  What was surprising to investors was how low Consumer Sentiment actually came in at.  We now have people believing that we are in the toughest economic cycle since 1982.  This negativity for the economy will translate into better Colorado Home Loan rates over the next few days.  We should keep a close eye on our next report which will be The Consumer Confidence Report due out on the 29^th.  This report mirrors Consumer Sentiment and given the preview we got today investors may be more likely to buy Mortgage Backed Securities sooner then later.  This sudden increase in demand will translate into a momentum shift which should push Colorado Home Loan rates back down a bit.  Let’s not forget about our big reporting day, April 30^th.  No matter how you look at it we have some market moving activities in store, the question is how will it impact your Colorado Home Loan rate?  We believe that better rates are on the horizon and because we feel rates will come down will maintain our FLOAT recommendation.  We are moving up our Lock rate recommendation from 5.5% to 5.75%.  We expect Colorado Home Loan rate reductions over the next week or so, but we do not believe that we will hit the 5.5% for at least 60 days.  This means that if you are closing in the next 60 days and we can lock you in at 5.75% we should probably go ahead and lock it in.  We will make the Colorado Home Loan rate lock recommendations directly to you when rates hit the 5.75%.  For a faster response stay tuned to my blog at both sites and I will update you immediately when we have a Colorado Home Loan LOCK recommendation in force.  In the mean time God Bless and have a safe weekend:-)

You can get most of the Retail Sales  information from www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news  Colorado Home Loan rates are currently moving up and down with very little volatility at the movement, indicating that Colorado Home Loan rate pricing should stay right where they started the day.  The Retail Sales numbers came in slightly higher then what investors anticipated they would, but not high enough to make Colorado Home Loan rates increase.  The real story will come in the days ahead.  We have two inflationary reports coming out and both reports can move Colorado Home Loan rates up or down fairly quickly.  The Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index both tell the story of what inflation has done to pricing as a whole.  These indicators, which are reported monthly, will set the stage for what Colorado Home Loan rates will do for the remainder of the month.  Experts are currently stressing the fact that energy prices are at a point where inflation has to be high.  I too believe that this will impact the numbers, but investors have already anticipated high energy costs into their risk assessments.  So what happens if these reports come in at or below expectations?  Colorado Home Loan Rates will improve.  Based on the state of the Economy and the fact that people are afraid to buy, inflation should be in line.  Inflation can really only go up if demand is high, if demand is low pricing will decrease.  Low demand normally will cause inflation to decrease.  So we are back to our original thought and that is what story will energy have with the numbers?  Hard to say exactly how investors will react to this, but we will know by Thursday.  I will keep the FLOAT recommendation in place, but stay tuned to see what the reports will do.  God Bless and thank you for staying tuned.

Colorado home loan rates slipped again this afternoon as federal regulators continue to send strong signals on liquidity reform.  Today’s housing committee had several open and public opinions about the severity of the housing market and what will be done in the near future.  One thing for sure, we are in uncharted waters.  Today’s hearings focused on a bill that would deliver $400 Billion dollars in bailout funds to consumers who are facing foreclosure or financial hardships due to poorly designed Colorado home loan programs.  Normally news like this would actually allow Colorado home loan rates to drop, but that did not happen.  Instead the market reacted more heavily on what was said outside the meeting walls versus what was said in the meeting.  Several political figures have expressed strong opinions on what has caused the issues in the financial mortgage lending markets.  Sen. Bunning indicating on MSN that the last two Federal Reserve Chairman’s dropped the ball.  He indicated that over the last 12 years the Fed’s stood ideally by as the crisis built.  I agree that in hind sight, stonger oversight would have been a better deterrent for what is going on in the market today, however it is easier to recognize that today after the fact then when it was going on.  Remember that at the time our economy had experience some of the greatest economical booms this century has ever seen in the financial markets.  Its would have been political suicide to convince their consituants that reform was needed to limit growth.  They would have been voted right out of office and guess what, Sen. Bunning having been in the Senate during these times, played along side everyone else.  Colorado home loan rates continue to fluctuate up and down in a market uncertain of what is to come.  Investors are holding out hope that our economy will start its recovery soon, but have started to implement a wait and see approach.  Bond volume is down and when volume is down, and supply is up, Colorado home loan rates react negatively.  Regardless of the economic data coming in, if we don’t have investors buying we become victims to the supply side movement of rates.  Economic data coming out lately should have created pressures to buy Mortgage Backed Securities not sell them.  Rates should be coming down.  The same forces presented themselves into the market back in 2003 with a much different result.  We saw rates hit a historic low and for the first time we saw fixed rates hit 5.0%.  .  The spread between the 10 year treasury bond and 30 year 5.5% coupon bond is such that rates should be lower then what is being offered by Colorado home loan lenders.  So the question is do we lock or do we float?  Well if you locked last Friday as recommended then you are doing much better then those faced with locking today.  However its hard to say how long this lack of investor confidence will last and how much higher rates will go before seeing some relief.  I believe that until we see economic data indicating a clear sign on the state of the economy, investors will continue to take a cautious approach to the market.  This will keep volume trading to a minimum.  Until volume picks up it really doesn’t make a difference on what is reported, we will continue to have a supply issues, causing Colorado Home Loan rates to go up.  Have a great evening and good luck:-)  Read more at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news

Colorado home loan rates have had some negative news come out today causing interest rate to increases for much of today.  UBS or Union Bank of Switzerland announced that they would be issuing investment opportunities in order to raise capital.  This Financial institution has seen some tough times over the last couple of quarters and in order to relaunch their current market position have had to  asked the market to provide them with capital.  Colorado Home Loan rates will take a hit as investors pull money out of the Mortgage Backed Securities market in order to capitalize on these new investment opportunities.  Even though UBS reported a 19 billion dollar write-down on their financial reports, investors still believe that UBS is a credible investment risk.  By offering higher returns with their capital investment opportunities, investors are likely to take the bait and buy.  This should return some good numbers in the stock market.  Like every other big news item investors do have one flaw and that is a tendency to over react.  Investors are looking for what ever edge they can get to make their portfolios perform better, but realization should set in again towards the end of the week.   I expect that the markets will continue to react to this news tomorrow, but like last week, the second any bad economic news hits the market, investors will begin a quick retreat into the bond markets.  by getting investors back into bonds, Colorado home loan rates will begin to fall.  The question here is when will the economic news prove to be to much for investors to continue this stock buying frenzy.  We may have to wait until Friday when the unemployment figures are released in order to get the movement back, but eventually it will happen.  The real money maker question today is simple, How far will rates go up before investors come to their senses and begin to pull their money back into safer investment vehicles?  Only time will tell, but I believe it will happen by the end of this week.  Floating is tough to recommend when rates go up but for now if you LOCK you will find yourself buying into the over reaction currently taking place in the market.  We will keep a close eye on the reports.   If any of the new economic data begins to show signs that the economy is in a state of recovery then we will issue a Strong LOCK recommendation.  Now lets just think about what was said and ask yourself are we really showing any signs of recovery?  If you answer no then waiting to lock should pay off.

Colorado Home Loan rates should react well today.  Like Friday, news continues to come in that will make a positive movement for Colorado Home Loan rates.  Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been talking to Congress about a Bush backed plan to help overhaul our current Financial system.  This overhaul will basically put the Federal Reserve in charge, allowing them more control over monetary policy.  Initially I am against more government control on free markets, but in this case, the Federal Reserve does show signs that are Mortgage Backed Securities friendly.  Translation, they help our Colorado Home Loan rates drop.  Lenders who have released their Colorado Home Loan rates earlier today have already issued a new Price Alert for the better.  This week may prove to be a strong lock recommendation if and when rates hit the 5.5% range.  We are close and should take advantage when in fact that does happen.  Right now we still have the FLOAT recommendation on the expectation that rates should continue to improve today and into tomorrow.  Stay tuned for the LOCK recommendation which may happen late today or tomorrow.  We are waiting for Mortgage Backed Securities to hit the 101.5 price range for the 5.5% coupon when this happens Colorado Home Loan rates should be at the 5.5% range and locking will be recommended.  Sometimes it is best to know when to hold-em and know when to cash in:-) I bet you thought I was going into a Kenny Rogers song (I don’t think so).  Best of Luck, if for some reason we hit  the 5.375% range which currently is unlikely, I will implement an automatic lock for anyone not currently locked.  Call me with questions on your Colorado Home Loan, I am very accessible and enjoy talking to you.
Daniel

Two Colorado home loan rates changes for the better????  Hmmmm Maybe we are on to something.  We will look to see what Colorado home loan rates are doing next week.  Normally don’t do a quick Colorado home loan blog post, but two rate changes for the better I really could not resist.