Colorado Home Mortgage Loan

Colorado Home Loan Rates should have seen another day of Colorado Home Loan rate improvements, but so far it appears that the market is unaffected.  NY Empire State Index surveys a group of manufacturers across New York in a variety of industries.  The participants of this survey normally involve company Presidents or CEO.  About 250 surveys are released and about 100 are returned.  The survey itself asks 10 or so questions as it relates to the Manufacturing sector.  These questions are designed to signal economic movements and inflationary pressures.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by survey results, because investors use that in determining future MBS pricings.  Obviously when MBS pricing increases Colorado Home Loan rates decrease.  A negative report typically causes Colorado Home Loan rates to drop.  Today’s report came in at a -8.7 and the consensus by leading experts was that the report would come in around -2.4.  Last month the NY Empire State Index came in at a -3.2, and it was expected that some improvement would be seen over May numbers.  The fact of the matter is that the report came in considerably lower then expected and it may have been what we needed to stop the up hill climb seen with Colorado Home Loan rates over the last week or so. 

Colorado Home Loan Rates were also impacted slightly by NAHB Sentiment index.  This index rates how the National Association of Home Builders perceives the current state of the business.  Obviously depending on how they think the economy and the home sale market are going, will dictate the amount of supply they generate.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by Home Sale Supplies but not directly.  This impact comes in a round about way, but Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted.  When you have an abundant supply for Home Sales the price of homes tend to go down.   Lower Home prices mixed with high Colorado Home Loan balances make it much more difficult to sell.  When home owners are unable to sell, Foreclosure rates increase, which increases the number of Mortgage Defaults.  Mortgage Defaults increases the risk associated with MBS creating a risk premium which is returned to the investors in the form of higher interest rates.  This is how Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by high home inventories.  NAHB Sentiment index registered a reading of 18 one point lower then last month.  Anything showing a reading below 50 signals negative feelings toward the current state of business.  When the NAHB Sentiment is low, normally new home building numbers are low which is good for Colorado Home Loan rates. 

In short Economic reports released today should have been positive for Colorado Home Loan rates.  Though we saw no immediate decreases in Colorado Home Loan rates, we also did not see any increases.  Right now we continue to face real inflationary fears, luckily these fears have not be substantiated by any real economic reporting.  This does not mean I don’t believe we have inflationary pressure, it just means that the pressure may not be as great as people think.  Colorado Home Loan rates tend to react heavily on inflationary information and last week we experience some heavy movements.  I am hoping that tomorrows PPI (Producer Price Index) comes in lower then expected, if this happens we may begin to finally see Colorado Home Loan rates move down.  The only thing I have indicating that the numbers may come in lower, stems from the NY Empire State index which stated prices paid to distributors remained unchanged, according to the survey.  We will see if the survey got it right. 

The consensus on where PPI will come in at does appear to be high enough for me to believe that we are in a FLOAT situation for your Colorado Home Loan product. Colorado Home Loan rates remained unchanged today, and if PPI reports at or below expectation tomorrow we should begin to see Colorado Home Loan rates improve.  We also have our Industrial Production numbers due out and it appears at least for now that we may see this report come in reporting negative numbers.  A negative number on this report with a better then expected number for PPI will be the proof needed to decrease current inflationary fears.   Look for Colorado Home Loan rates to improve this week. I will give it a 70% favorable probability on this weeks rate sheets.  Let tomorrow be the judge on whether I get this one right or wrong.  Good Luck and let me know how I can help you with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Daniel   

Colorado Home Loan rates take another hard hit today as economic data signals appear to be heading in the right direction.  There were 4 major economic and headline pieces creating Colorado Home Loan rate movements in the Securities market.  Jobless claims, Import and Export Price index, Retail Sales, and finally key notes from Charles Plosser became the information of interest for Investors.  Colorado Home Loan rates did not do to well on the information released from these sources.  Listed below are the reports and their impacts.

Retail Sales were forecasted at a .5% growth.  The actual Growth from May was 1%, double the initial consensus.  Many experts believe that this created a major sell off in the Mortgage Backed Securities market and was today’s single biggest Colorado Home Loan rate mover.  Personally I believe that we should not have been surprised by the greater then expected numbers.  We are a society that likes to spend money, and with all the recent Tax return credits coming into the picture how could we not prepare for the increase in buying power.  Colorado Home Loan rates jumped up, but I don’t believe that Retail Sales was the primary reason for that.  The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Retail Sales is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending and is adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays. Strength in Retail Sales implies a strong economy and is usually negative for bond markets.  This negative push in the bond markets creates Price pressures which cause Colorado Home Loan rates to go up.

Colorado Home Loan rates did have some inflationary data tied to it today.  We had two things in the last 24 hours create negative attention on inflationary pressure.  The direct result is why I think Colorado Home Loan rates increased the way they did.  The first report was import and export price index.  Import and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation.  A better way to look at this is that this is a way for us to import inflation domestically.  If we are bringing in inflationary goods inflation increases here at home.  Colorado Home Loan rates hate anything to do with inflation whether it is here or abroad.  Chares Plosser spoke recently setting the stage yet again about the Federal Reserves concern for inflation.  He stated that this was his and the Federal Reserves biggest concern and that they would combat that at all costs.  He also noted that a fine line has to be set between fighting inflation and helping the economy grow.  These two indicators work inversely to each other and must be managed.  Colorado Home Loan rates obviously took another hard hit on inflationary talk and with so many members of the Federal Reserve bringing it up a real inflation problem is projected.  Luckily we have things in place and have learned our lessons from the 1970’s to ensure the obstacles that were present there do not repeat themselves today.  We certainly have all the components in line which can trigger Colorado Home Loan rates to go up like the 70’s but the Federal Reserve is committed and will sacrifice economic growth to avoid inflation problems.

On a lighter note for Colorado Home Loan rates, Jobless Claims came in higher then expected which should have helped Colorado Home Loan rates a bit.  Honestly all it did was slow down the up hill climb in Colorado Home Loan rates already being felt in the market.  Jobless claims came in at 384K much higher then the 370K consensus expectations.  Tomorrow will be a big day for Colorado Home Loan rates and should be monitored closely.  If the CPI report comes in at or below expectation, Colorado Home Loan rates will improve or at least stop its current up hill trends.  If CPI (Consumer Price Index) Comes in higher then expected watch out we may see Colorado Home Loan rates jump up in the high 6% range before the end of the week.  We will also need to keep a close eye on PPI next week this is the second price index report and will give us the final look at last months inflationary pressure.  Luckily it appears that the consensus has prepared us by having the expectation set higher then last month so it does not appear that they are too far out on what it should come in at.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be difficult to predict until both reports are released.  If both reports come in lower then expected we may see some nice gains by the end of next week.  LOCK if you can get 6.0% otherwise you may as well ride the wave for a week or so, Colorado Home Loan rates are destine to get some of the losses back, if anything the lenders have way too much safety premium currently built in.  This means that as soon as things come down Colorado Home Loan rates will improve as investors lift their current conservative thresholds between the Mortgage Backed Securities market and the Whole Sale Lending markets.  Please call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

Daniel

We are seeing some volatility in the Mortgage Backed Securities market this morning and Colorado Home Loan rates appear to be holding steady for the moment.  There appears to be a lot of buzz on the Hill related to a variety of FHA sponsored bills which were approved by the house yesterday.  The Frank bill approved yesterday in the house has proposed a $15 Billion dollar bail out on homes currently facing Foreclosure.  The bill would forgive the balances on Colorado Home Loans that exceed the current property prices.  These lenders would then refinance the Colorado Home Loan at a balance closely reflecting actual value.  The difference would be paid out by the government.  Now on the surface it appears to be a good program, especially if your owe more on your home then it is worth.  Colorado Home Loan programs have not faced the same obstacles as other loans in other states.  Florida, Nevada, Michigan, and California just to name a few have seen home prices drop more then 20% in the last year and many people trying to refinance just can’t because of the current property value issues.  Colorado Home Loans based in parts of Denver are facing similar issues.  These Colorado Home Loan programs were designed to be refinanced in two years with the hope that property values would go up.  Instead many consumers are faced with Colorado Home Loan programs that have adjusted to a point where the home can no longer be afforded.  This is a major issue in our foreclosure market today and though I believe the bill has good intentions, ultimately the results will not favor the market.  I continue to support my philosophy that the Government should not intervene in any market activity.  Normally when you have governments trying to push markets in one direction or another, the market tends to react poorly.

Colorado Home Loan programs were underwritten by a variety of Lenders understanding the risk associated with them.  The lenders who approved the loans should be held accountable for the type of Colorado Home Loan programs they approved.  We are in a very tough market which will recover.  We simply need the markets to resolve the issues on their own.  Only when you have the absence of outside influences will the market correct itself.  Colorado Home Loan rates do appear to be holding steady around the 5.75% range we LOCKED in at yesterday, but it appears that we may be heading for some tough days ahead.  We will continue to recommend Locking and at this point you should not be getting quoted anything above 5.875%.  If you have a Colorado Home Loan rate above that please call me and give me a chance to see what I can do for you.  In the mean time have a great weekend and a special happy Mothers Day to my Wife, We just found out yesterday that we are expecting baby #2.  Jaimee I love you.  If you want to read more blog information go to www.coloradomortgagebanking.com select blog #1

Daniel