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Posts Tagged ‘Loan rates’

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates might see some additional improvments before the 4th of July

Monday, June 30th, 2008

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will be impacted by a variety of Economic reports due out this week.  We saw some nice improvements last week and we are hoping that the momentum will continue to drive Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates down.  We are hitting some resistance in the MBS market and you can learn more about that at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.  We will focus this site on the news that will impact your Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates today.  We only had one report today, which was the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.   The Chicago PMI is measured by new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories and employment; asking for positive, negative or unchanged readings of each. A reading above 50% generally indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50% signifies contraction.  The Chicago PMI report came in at 49.6 which still indicates contraction in production however it does appear that we may be hitting the turning point soon.  We can only contract so far before expansion becomes inevitable.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates did not move much from the news as it basically came in close to expectations.  With no surprises in the report investors looked to the headlines to make their buying decisions.  The stock market did increase a bit and because of those gains MBS did take a bit of a hit.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates did jump up about .125% by close of business. 

                                                                                       

I do not think that the increase seen today will continue unless something unexpected happens in the next day or so.  Most of the Economic reports being released this week will have minor impacts on Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, and will not be enough to break any new barriers.  Most of the decreases felt in Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates over the last couple of weeks have found its way into the Rate Sheets today, and LOCKING would be a good idea.  Those that think inflationary pressures will not creep into the news might find this week’s economic data favorable to Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates.  We have a variety of reports due out that will create some movement.  The two reports to watch out for this week are tomorrows ISM index and Thursday Nonfarm Payroll.  These are the only two reports that could break some of the barriers we are seeing in the MBS market.

 

The ISM Manufacturing Index is a national survey of purchasing managers which covers such indicators as orders, production, employment, inventories, delivery times, prices, export orders, and import orders. The ISM provides a composite index of national manufacturing conditions.  Manufacturing is an important sector of the economy and the ISM index is one of the two primary national measures (the Chicago PMI is the other). Like the Chicago PMI anything reported below 50 indicates a contraction in the market.  If the Chicago PMI is a preview of what is to come in the ISM Manufacturing Index, we will see this report indicating some contraction in the market.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates should decrease a bit if the report indicates contraction.  How much Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will improve depends greatly on what the report says.  I don’t expect any surprises in this report and because of that, do not expect any real movement to play out in the Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate market.

 

Non-Farm Payrolls is estimated based on a survey of larger businesses measuring the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in businesses or for the government.  This report typically has a big impact on Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, because on the inflationary implications that come from the report. The Non-Farm Payroll data is the top number of the Employment Report, one of the most highly anticipated pieces of economic data. The headline figure is often a major market mover with the labor market a strong predictor of the strength of the economy. The Unemployment Rate is obtained from a different data sample, and together the two reports provide the most comprehensive picture of the labor market.  This could be the information we need to break through the price Ceiling currently being felt in the market.  This also assumes that we do not see any additional movement in Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates until then.  Inflation is a hot topic and if the reading comes in worse then expected, much of the inflationary fears revolving around this report will dissipate (for the time being).  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will see some nice improvements and we might at that time get below the 6.0% range.  We need to weigh out the risk/reward in any decision to float or Lock.  We have hit a low point for the last couple of weeks and we will need the economic data to indicate something that is contradictory to what experts are say.  Which is that inflation is under control.  Only if this happens will rates improve to a point where floating makes sense.  Its like betting on the right horse, about a 1 in 10 shot, because of this if you are not risk adverse, then LOCKING would be a good idea.

 

Please call me with your Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate questions.  I would enjoy earning your business.


Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rates may be heading in the right direction

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates saw very little movement today.  The only major economic report to be released today was the Consumer Confidence numbers.  It appears that Consumer Confidence is at an all time low and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates did see some action because of this.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates dropped a bit but not enough to make any type of rate change in the lender rate sheets.  Most of what will impact the market will be released tomorrow and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will certainly see some action because of this.  Listed below I have a simple break down of the reports released today and what we can expect tomorrow:

Consumer Confidence fell to a record low 50.0, which was a lot worse then the 56.0 expectation set in the market last week.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will see some improvements based on this information alone.  Consumer Confidence has a direct correlation to consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of the economy. Consumer Confidence also has some correlation with joblessness, inflation, and real income. Typically only changes of five points or more are considered significant.  We had an 8.2 point drop from when the report was last issued and a 6 point drop from what was expected.  This should have had some strong impacts in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but so far it appears the FOMC is taking center stage.  There are other pressures that change consumer spending other than consumer confidence, inflation, joblessness, and regional business issues. Consumer Confidence is used to predict the direction of Consumer Spending but because of other influences, higher Confidence won’t always lead to higher Spending.  Higher Spending numbers could be in direct relation to higher inflation.  This would be bad for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  However this months report should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates for now.

Two Other Reports released today Richmond Fed Survey and Case-Shiller Price index numbers play separate roles in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but not enough to be considered a mover and a shaker.  Richmond Fed Survey works similar to the Empire State report and reports on manufacturing areas.  The report indicated a reduction in manufacturing demand which is a sign that our economy appears to be retracting.  The Price Shiller Price Index which monitors price changes in 10 different cities seemed to indicate that pricing is down which should be good news for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I only briefly talk about these because it does not impact the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets enough to make rates move.  However they were released today and the numbers seem to favor Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates so I wanted to mention them.

FOMC Meeting will conclude tomorrow and reports will begin to leak in about what was discussed in the meeting.  The first thing that will be determined is the FOMC action.  Action normally relates to what the FOMC has decided to do to short term interest rates.  If no action is taken on Short-Term Interest rates, the FOMC will signal that Economic Stimulus continues to be its main course of action.  This will be good for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  If Short Term interest rates are increased then the FOMC will be combating inflation which is very negative for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I believe that the FOMC will leave rates alone and that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will react positively.  We just need to stay tuned to see if the board was split or not on this decision and we will need to watch for any major inflationary discussions.

Durable Goods will be a strong mover and shaker for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  Durable Goods Orders reports the number of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. Durable goods are items considered to be useful for at least three years (such as vehicles, large appliances and computers.)
This is important to Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates because it provides insight into demand as well as business investment. Companies willing to spend more on equipment and other capital are possibly experiencing sustainable growth and could be planning on greater production capacity.  Consensus for this report is that we will have a positive output in growth with manufacturing orders, however our last three reports have all been negative.  A negative number will create uncertainty in the equities market and demand for bonds will increase.  As a result we will have Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates improve for the week.  I believe the numbers will show a negative output.

 

I hope this helps and please contact me with your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan questions.  If the market heads in the direction I am hoping it will we should see some improvements to Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  We will have to wait and see what the numbers say tomorrow.  If you have time check out my other site please do so at: www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news  

Colorado Home Loan: Why are economic reports being ignored?

Monday, June 16th, 2008

Colorado Home Loan Rates should have seen another day of Colorado Home Loan rate improvements, but so far it appears that the market is unaffected.  NY Empire State Index surveys a group of manufacturers across New York in a variety of industries.  The participants of this survey normally involve company Presidents or CEO.  About 250 surveys are released and about 100 are returned.  The survey itself asks 10 or so questions as it relates to the Manufacturing sector.  These questions are designed to signal economic movements and inflationary pressures.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by survey results, because investors use that in determining future MBS pricings.  Obviously when MBS pricing increases Colorado Home Loan rates decrease.  A negative report typically causes Colorado Home Loan rates to drop.  Today’s report came in at a -8.7 and the consensus by leading experts was that the report would come in around -2.4.  Last month the NY Empire State Index came in at a -3.2, and it was expected that some improvement would be seen over May numbers.  The fact of the matter is that the report came in considerably lower then expected and it may have been what we needed to stop the up hill climb seen with Colorado Home Loan rates over the last week or so. 

 

Colorado Home Loan Rates were also impacted slightly by NAHB Sentiment index.  This index rates how the National Association of Home Builders perceives the current state of the business.  Obviously depending on how they think the economy and the home sale market are going, will dictate the amount of supply they generate.  Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by Home Sale Supplies but not directly.  This impact comes in a round about way, but Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted.  When you have an abundant supply for Home Sales the price of homes tend to go down.   Lower Home prices mixed with high Colorado Home Loan balances make it much more difficult to sell.  When home owners are unable to sell, Foreclosure rates increase, which increases the number of Mortgage Defaults.  Mortgage Defaults increases the risk associated with MBS creating a risk premium which is returned to the investors in the form of higher interest rates.  This is how Colorado Home Loan rates are impacted by high home inventories.  NAHB Sentiment index registered a reading of 18 one point lower then last month.  Anything showing a reading below 50 signals negative feelings toward the current state of business.  When the NAHB Sentiment is low, normally new home building numbers are low which is good for Colorado Home Loan rates. 

 

In short Economic reports released today should have been positive for Colorado Home Loan rates.  Though we saw no immediate decreases in Colorado Home Loan rates, we also did not see any increases.  Right now we continue to face real inflationary fears, luckily these fears have not be substantiated by any real economic reporting.  This does not mean I don’t believe we have inflationary pressure, it just means that the pressure may not be as great as people think.  Colorado Home Loan rates tend to react heavily on inflationary information and last week we experience some heavy movements.  I am hoping that tomorrows PPI (Producer Price Index) comes in lower then expected, if this happens we may begin to finally see Colorado Home Loan rates move down.  The only thing I have indicating that the numbers may come in lower, stems from the NY Empire State index which stated prices paid to distributors remained unchanged, according to the survey.  We will see if the survey got it right. 

 

The consensus on where PPI will come in at does appear to be high enough for me to believe that we are in a FLOAT situation for your Colorado Home Loan product. Colorado Home Loan rates remained unchanged today, and if PPI reports at or below expectation tomorrow we should begin to see Colorado Home Loan rates improve.  We also have our Industrial Production numbers due out and it appears at least for now that we may see this report come in reporting negative numbers.  A negative number on this report with a better then expected number for PPI will be the proof needed to decrease current inflationary fears.   Look for Colorado Home Loan rates to improve this week. I will give it a 70% favorable probability on this weeks rate sheets.  Let tomorrow be the judge on whether I get this one right or wrong.  Good Luck and let me know how I can help you with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

 

Daniel   

Colorado Home Loan: Another Bad day on the market

Thursday, June 12th, 2008

Colorado Home Loan rates take another hard hit today as economic data signals appear to be heading in the right direction.  There were 4 major economic and headline pieces creating Colorado Home Loan rate movements in the Securities market.  Jobless claims, Import and Export Price index, Retail Sales, and finally key notes from Charles Plosser became the information of interest for Investors.  Colorado Home Loan rates did not do to well on the information released from these sources.  Listed below are the reports and their impacts.

 

Retail Sales were forecasted at a .5% growth.  The actual Growth from May was 1%, double the initial consensus.  Many experts believe that this created a major sell off in the Mortgage Backed Securities market and was today’s single biggest Colorado Home Loan rate mover.  Personally I believe that we should not have been surprised by the greater then expected numbers.  We are a society that likes to spend money, and with all the recent Tax return credits coming into the picture how could we not prepare for the increase in buying power.  Colorado Home Loan rates jumped up, but I don’t believe that Retail Sales was the primary reason for that.  The Retail Sales Index measures the total receipts of retail and food sales. Retail sales include durable and non-durable merchandise sold and services and taxes incidental to the sale of merchandise. Retail Sales is the timeliest indicator of broad consumer spending and is adjusted for seasonal variations and holidays. Strength in Retail Sales implies a strong economy and is usually negative for bond markets.  This negative push in the bond markets creates Price pressures which cause Colorado Home Loan rates to go up.

 

Colorado Home Loan rates did have some inflationary data tied to it today.  We had two things in the last 24 hours create negative attention on inflationary pressure.  The direct result is why I think Colorado Home Loan rates increased the way they did.  The first report was import and export price index.  Import and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad. These prices indicate inflationary trends in internationally traded products.  Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation.  A better way to look at this is that this is a way for us to import inflation domestically.  If we are bringing in inflationary goods inflation increases here at home.  Colorado Home Loan rates hate anything to do with inflation whether it is here or abroad.  Chares Plosser spoke recently setting the stage yet again about the Federal Reserves concern for inflation.  He stated that this was his and the Federal Reserves biggest concern and that they would combat that at all costs.  He also noted that a fine line has to be set between fighting inflation and helping the economy grow.  These two indicators work inversely to each other and must be managed.  Colorado Home Loan rates obviously took another hard hit on inflationary talk and with so many members of the Federal Reserve bringing it up a real inflation problem is projected.  Luckily we have things in place and have learned our lessons from the 1970’s to ensure the obstacles that were present there do not repeat themselves today.  We certainly have all the components in line which can trigger Colorado Home Loan rates to go up like the 70’s but the Federal Reserve is committed and will sacrifice economic growth to avoid inflation problems.

 

On a lighter note for Colorado Home Loan rates, Jobless Claims came in higher then expected which should have helped Colorado Home Loan rates a bit.  Honestly all it did was slow down the up hill climb in Colorado Home Loan rates already being felt in the market.  Jobless claims came in at 384K much higher then the 370K consensus expectations.  Tomorrow will be a big day for Colorado Home Loan rates and should be monitored closely.  If the CPI report comes in at or below expectation, Colorado Home Loan rates will improve or at least stop its current up hill trends.  If CPI (Consumer Price Index) Comes in higher then expected watch out we may see Colorado Home Loan rates jump up in the high 6% range before the end of the week.  We will also need to keep a close eye on PPI next week this is the second price index report and will give us the final look at last months inflationary pressure.  Luckily it appears that the consensus has prepared us by having the expectation set higher then last month so it does not appear that they are too far out on what it should come in at.  Colorado Home Loan rates will be difficult to predict until both reports are released.  If both reports come in lower then expected we may see some nice gains by the end of next week.  LOCK if you can get 6.0% otherwise you may as well ride the wave for a week or so, Colorado Home Loan rates are destine to get some of the losses back, if anything the lenders have way too much safety premium currently built in.  This means that as soon as things come down Colorado Home Loan rates will improve as investors lift their current conservative thresholds between the Mortgage Backed Securities market and the Whole Sale Lending markets.  Please call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.

 

Daniel

Colorado Home Loan rates hit a new summer high

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Colorado Home Loan rates hit a new summer high.  Most Colorado Home Loan providers are quoting around 6.25% or 6.5% for a conventional 30 year fixed Colorado Home Loan rate product.  We will continue to honor 6.0% and will not charge any points.  The hit for the new rate will be absorbed by us.  Colorado Home Loan rates took on some extra baggage when today’s Jobless Claims report came in better then expected.  Keep in mind that when Economic data shows signs that our economy is on a path to recovery, Colorado Home Loan rates will take a hit.  The reason for that is that investors will pull money out of the Mortgage Backed Securities market and will in return leave it in the equities market. 

 

Jobless Claims came in at 357K and the expectations were set at 370K.  Colorado Home Loan rates reacted negatively to the data.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate.
This report impacts Colorado Home Loan rates because if unemployment goes low enough it can put the demand for higher wages in the market.  The higher wage demand puts pressure on the economy and can cause increases in Colorado Home Loan interest rates.  The Bank of England, which has similar responsibilities to the Federal Reserve did not move interest rates up or down which was expected by the market.  The combination of the two reports normally would not have drastic impacts on the Colorado Home Loan market, but tied to comments made by the Federal Reserve yesterday, made a bigger impact on Colorado Home Loan rates then it normally would have.

 

Inflation continues to be the #1 influencer on where Colorado Home Loan rates are expected to go.  Higher inflation will devalue long term investments.  The lower price pressure requires a higher Colorado Home Loan rate to attract other investors.  We have implemented a FLOAT recommendation which you can read in detail at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com.  In the mean time we will need to prepare ourselves for the Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rates which will create some movements in the Colorado Home Loan rate market.  Industry experts have been extremely low in their estimations as it relates to forecasting these economic data reports.  If the trend continues and the consensus on where the data will come in is still low, Colorado Home Loan rates will go up again.  6.0% is sounding more and more like the rate of choice and if it is offered to you would not be a bad Colorado Home Loan rate to lock in.  We have jumped a bit in the last 3 weeks and if you believe Colorado Home Loan rates may improve then wait until you feel like locking your Colorado Home Loan.  I only recommend the FLOAT option today, because much of the data released today have already had the impacts hit the market.  Colorado Home Loan rates started the day off worse and it appears that as the day progresses that much of the loss from today’s economic reports will be regained in the Colorado Home Loan rate market. 

 

As I stated before tomorrows two economic reports will create movement in the Colorado Home Loan market who much movement will be realized when the reports are released.  Nonfarm Payroll data is the top number of the Employment Report, one of the most highly anticipated pieces of economic data. The headline figure is often a major Colorado Home Loan market mover with the labor market a strong predictor of the strength of the economy. The Unemployment Rate is obtained from a different data sample, and together the two reports provide the most comprehensive picture of the labor market. The monthly reports are, however, very volatile and subject to large revisions in future releases. Long term trends in the report’s data are a better gauge for the true state of the labor market. Strength in the labor market implies a strong economy and is usually negative for Colorado Home Loan markets.  Unemployment will also be released with this report and is the second component in what investors look at in the reported employment numbers.  Colorado Home Loan rates will either jump or of go down after the release of these figures.

 

It is very hard to determine where we need to lock your Colorado Home Loan in the next 24 hours, but it appears that for the moment the Mortgage Backed Securities market is trying to make up for some of the ground lost earlier this morning.  I would FLOAT your Colorado Home Loan rate until late this afternoon and would lock then if you want to take the risk out of the market.  For those willing to ride it out, it appears that we have a lot of ground that we could make up that could be regained if the employment numbers come in worse then expected. 


Remember to call me with your Colorado Home Loan questions.  My Colorado Home Loan Rate Lock Recommendation remains at 6.0% we will see what Friday brings us until then.

 

Best of Luck

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates take a hard hit in the market today.

Thursday, May 22nd, 2008

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates took a hard hit today on reports that Inflation appeared to be under estimated.  Bill Gross an investment guru and expert in the market made some strong statements indicating that current inflationary data appeared to be under estimated, and that inflation data going forward would be worse then expected.  Bill Gross currently runs the biggest investment portfolio at PIMCO and has been an expert in this field for many years.  His comments to me appear to be accurate, but he does not sit on any committees responsible for reporting inflationary data.  These comments are made based on his professional opinion and by looking at the recent increases in oil, I believe he is correct.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates took about a .25% hit today and appears to be on the rise.  Much of the activity felt in the Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate market was based on fear, but the fear does seem to be warranted.  It is hard to gauge the exact impact oil will have on inflation, but it is easy to see that it will be a negative impact.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will continue to jump up as negative inflationary data comes in. 

I have implemented a FLOAT recommendation today simply because the increases felt  today were a result of fear, not hard statistical data released by any economic reporting agencies.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates jumped up today and as a result 5.75% may not be available.  I am maintaining a Colorado Home Mortgage Loan lock recommendation at 5.75% and unless I see something in the data that requires we increase this recommendation to a higher rates will have my clients floating.  Floating will stay as the recommendation until we can get that Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate at or below 5.75%.  It’s interesting what 24 hours will do, yesterday the feeling was that we have some tough times ahead and that we are not even close to being out of the economical debacle we currently face.  Today I am seeing experts changing their tune on the news that Jobless Claims came in better then expected.  Come on!  Realistically we have some tough times ahead which normally means Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates should be getting better, but we have one major obstacle and that will be inflationary pressure.  Any positive gains in the Colorado Home Mortgage Loan market due to economic issues will be off set by how bad inflation reacts over the next 12 months.  To what extent this will happen is still hard to gauge.   

The Jobless claims report came in at 365K new claims filed, which is slightly better then the 370K expected.  Normally this alone would not create and movement in Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, but today it did push Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates up a bit.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate.  The four-week moving average and continuing claims are watched more closely for changes. The labor market is considered to be improving when the four-week moving average goes below 400,000. If unemployment goes low enough it can put wage pressure on the economy and can cause increases in interest rates.  What is interesting about today’s release is that it is the 4th highest Jobless Claims reported in the last 3 years yet the forecast seemed to be viewed as a positive sign for economic recovery.  Go figure.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates in the past would have responded very positive to the high number, but with such terrible data being released month after month it actual appeared as an improvement. 

Tomorrow we will see our last economic report until Tuesday of next week.  Existing Home Sales will create some movement for Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates but it does not move the market much.    The Existing Home Sales Index reports the number of existing homes sold, expressed on an annual basis. The sales of existing homes accounts for 84% of all houses sold and the total volume indicates housing demand.  The report is a strong predictor of future national mortgage origination volume and for near term spending for housing-related items.  Mortgage origination has reported negative increases the last two weeks so it is expected that tomorrows report will come in low.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates should respond well but it will not make up all the ground lost today.  Not only will it not make up the ground lost today we may see Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates get worse if inflationary concerns continue to dominate the Headlines. 

I do think its funny how Congress has required Oil CEO’s to come out and justify their profits.  What they should be working on is alternative solution to a problem that will not go away.  We have a Varity of options to explore and talking about whose fault it is will not solve the problem.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan Rates will continue to see obstacles as long as oil continues to rise.  Oil is the biggest cost component in shipping which contributes a major impact to the ending price set on goods.  The increases felt in the market will translate to higher inflation.  We have a long way to go, and I do not have a solution to the problem, but I do believe we should do less talking and more doing.  For the sake of time I will limit my tirade to this one thought.  On rare occasions government intervention does help market systems and in the case of Oil something has to be done.  Those that voted in our current leadership party voted on the premises of change.  Well it appears to me that change has not happened.  What’s scary is that it does not appear that change will happen anytime soon.  Contrary to what these congressional people promised NOTHING HAS CHANGED.  If anything things are worse.  If we want change, maybe we need to re-look at who we voted in and think long and hard about voting someone else in. 

If you have time Check out www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news for more insights on economic conditions.  Please call me with your Colorado Home Mortgage Loan questions.  God bless.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are taking a hit on early morning trading

Wednesday, May 21st, 2008

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are taking a hit first thing this morning in anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes due to be released.  The primary reason for increased Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates this morning stems from the lack of volume currently trade on the Mortgage Backed Securities floor.  The FOMC minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on pre-scheduled days. Minutes are prepared to provide the necessary information to Congress and the public on policies and actions of the FOMC. The summary description of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes is based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. The minutes of each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are made available a few days after the next regularly scheduled meeting. For example, the minutes of the first meeting of the year are released a few days after the second meeting of the year.  It is what the FOMC says in these minutes that will impact the direction Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will go.

                                              

We have implemented a LOCKING strategy over the last couple of days, and we are still advocating clients to LOCK.  5.75% is the right pricing point to lock at the moment as it appears rates may climb a bit today and tomorrow.  We may even see rates change a bit over the next couple of hours if the Mortgage Backed Securities Market continues its downward pricing trend.  Remember that we have an inverse relationship with the price of bonds and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  When Bond prices drop Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates increase.  The opposite is said when bond price go up.

 

Here is a look at the Mortgage Backed Securities market so far.

 

 

This is a graph I monitor everyday and it is simple to see when the trend is below 0.00 Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are expected to go up.  If  the trend is above 0.00 it is safe to assume that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will do down.  The trick here is to determine how the outside influences will move this graph.  If we have poor economic data coming in the graph will trend up if the economic data being released comes in better the expected the graph will drop.  This in a nutshell is how Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are expected to go up and down over time.  Our job is to get in about 12 hours before that happens and predict the direction.  More importantly we take the overall trend and focus on where it may go in the long run.  Its tough to determine where Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will go, but not impossibleJ

 

We have Jobless claims being released tomorrow and New home sales on Thrusday.  Both these reports will impact the market and at the momement I believe both reports will show negative economic data.  This should mean that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should not spike too much this week, but the will not improve to a point where FLOATING makes sense.  If you have not LOCKED in your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate yet then LOCK.  The Risk/Reward will not pay off in the long run.  Please call me with any of your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate questions.  Also check out my other site www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news when you have time.

 


Daniel

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