Colorado Home Mortgage Loan

I am predicting that the Economic Reports tomorrow will report GDP and Chicago PMI at or below expectations.  These reports if my projections are accurate will cause Colorado Mortgage Rates to drop below the current pricing floor.  This drop will allow us to secure our rate of 5.75%.   This will also open up the door for risk takers to drop below 5.75% over time.  We saw some continued improvements with Colorado Mortgage rates throughout the day, but much of the gain saw this morning was lost again by this afternoon.  The late day loss was due to investors concern about what these two  economic reports will actually say.  With everything we have seen in the market so far, I cannot imagine these reports showing any type of improvement in the market.  The problem is where investors have set the bar.  The bar continues to show expectations far below normal ranges.  Basically the market expects bad data.  If the numbers come in at or below expectations, investors will move to buy Mortgage Backed Securities.  This in return will improve Colorado Mortgage Rates.  

The only other movement we will see in Colorado Mortgage Rates will be the markets interpretation on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.  The FOMC will release a variety of statements indicating their plan to stimulate the economy.  The FOMC will be expecting another .25% decrease in short term interest rates.  Interest rate decreases help the economy, but tend to be bad for mortgage backed securities.  When Short term interest rates are decreased, investors begin to be concerned with inflation, causing negative ripples in the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  With this said we will continue our FLOAT recommendation until tomorrow.  We are still projecting a decrease in Colorado Mortgage rates through the week.  Though the interpretation on what will be said by FOMC members can impact rates negatively, we just don’t see that happening tomorrow.  Inflation is what we need to watch for.  As each Member of the FOMC board begins to leak information we will all be keeping our ears open for inflation talk.  If the talk is light, Colorado Mortgage Rates will improve.  If for some reason great concern is raised for inflation by the board we will need to prepare for an immediate lock, as rates will certainly rise. Negative inflation news will send Colorado Mortgage Rates back into an uphill climb.  It is up for interpretation, but if the FOMC does anything surprising the market will react negatively.  We can just about get you 5.75% and expect that to be a reality tomorrow.  So far we are implementing another FLOAT recommendation because of how close we are to 5.75%.  LOCKING in the next couple of days may take the risk out of the market but floating for 10 days may get us under the 5.75% we have been so set on breaking through.  Stay tuned and remember to call me for your Colorado Mortgage questions. 

Colorado Mortgage rates continued it’s up hill climb today.  So far Mortgage Backed Securities are reporting about .25% increases in Colorado Mortgage rates.  The news over the last few days has not been favorable to Mortgage Backed Securities. There are a number of reasons why this may be taking place, but it certainly reminds me of exactly how difficult it can be to project exactly where Colorado Mortgage rates are going.  In last 3 weeks we have seen Colorado Mortgage rates increase and increase and it just does not appear that we have any relief in sight.  All the Economic data coming in during the last 3 weeks should have been favorable to Colorado Mortgage rates; however that has not been the case.  1Q profit reports seem to be the driving force over the last 3 weeks leaving economic data for the back page of your local newspaper.  So the question today will be how much longer will Colorado Mortgage rates go up? And what will the rate be at its high point?  Most of my clients have been quoted between 5.75% and 6.0% with the condition that we would monitor a lock request at 5.5%.  Colorado Mortgage rates don’t appear to be heading in that direction in the next 45 days.  I still believe that we are at a high point assuming that we have no major surprises in the stock market (Like Ambac see www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news). We have some slow days ahead as it relates to economic data, and most of the companies have reported their profits for 1Q, so we should see the momentum return to a more predictable approach.  We have 3 big reports coming out on April 30^th all of which will impact the market.  The biggest report of the three will be GDP which so far has reported positive production numbers.  If this report comes in lower then expected we will see rates improve.  Consumer sentiment and Consumer Confidence comes out tomorrow, both of which should come in low.  So assuming the stock market news keeps itself out of the headlines, rates should improve and FLOATING remains my recommendation.  It is a bit scary to see where we are at compared to 6 weeks ago, but I have said this many many times, we are not out of the woods yet! We will see bad economic data continue to make the headlines and when this happens Colorado Mortgage Rates will get better.  With that said, I am changing the Lock Floor Recommendation from 5.5% to 5.75% still a good rate, but hitting that 5.5% in the next 30 days will be out right difficult.  Call me with any of your Colorado Mortgage questions. 

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates continue to be the center of attention for those buying homes in the near future.  I am asked constantly about how I determine where rates are going.  Simply put I make an educated guess based on the economic data and the live pricing feeds I have into the Mortgage Backed Securities market.  It is actually very simple to predict the direction Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will go.  If the Mortgage Backed Securities market indicates that the prices on bonds are increasing then the rate on Colorado Home Mortgage Loans will decrease.  Likewise, if the Mortgage Backed Securities price decreases Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will increase.  The economic data released into the market projects the state of the economy today.  If the economy shows signs of improvements Mortgage Backed Securities will drop in price.  The reason they drop in price is due to investors moving money out of safe Mortgage Backed Securities investments and into high risk stock investments.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will certainly increase when money is moved out of Mortgage Backed Securities market. 

Over the last 9 Months the economic news has been very negative which in return has put Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates into a very pleasing price range.  It seems like everyone I talk to wants and expects to get their rate into the 5.5% range which has been the low points over the last 9 months.  We have experienced this low point about every 60 days or so.  It really depends on what the trend in the Mortgage Backed Securities market is and how investors are reacting to the economic data being released.  Inflation continues to be the negative influencer for Colorado home Mortgage Loan rates.  The mere fact that it is mentioned normally has Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates moving in the wrong direction.  The key to locking is to figure out when the low point will happen before you actually close on your loan. 

So far we are trending around 5.875% which is still good for Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, but we certainly would like to get a little lower.  So far today the Mortgage Backed Securities market has not responded well and it appears at least this morning that investors believe that the Durable goods report will come in better then expected.  I am still not convinced and as I stated on my other blog www.coloradomortgagebanking.com today’s pricing trends normally predict what’s in store for the economic data being released the next day.  We will have to watch for a late day rally to see if any insider information makes its way into the market.  Rates will certainly be a little worse today, based on what I am seeing in the market.  Though rates will jump a bit we are still holding strong on our FLOAT recommendation, no need to overreact with the market.  If Durable Goods come in below expectations we will see some positive changes in the Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate market.  Stay tuned I will update you on live market pricing as it happens. 

Right now the Mortgage Backed Securities market is not responding the way we would like.  On the news front Ambac posted a 1.7 Billion dollar loss.  Ambac is a bond insurer and losses with this company signals instability in Mortgage Backed Securities.  This will probably be the reason Mortgage Backed Securities take some hits today.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates increased to its highest point in 6 months the last time a bond insurer company reported losses.  Today we will not see the news effect the market as much because of all the other turmoil we are experiencing in the stock market.  Company after company continues its lower then expected profit reports which will help minimize the decreases felt from Ambac news.  Stay tuned, today will be an interesting day.  We expect Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates to improve over time, but today will not be that day.  Hopefully the economic data released tomorrow will push out the negative press on Ambac and help get Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates back where locking makes sense.

Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates should see some improvements this week.  I just got done looking at the Mortgage Back Securities market and we are right where we left off on Friday.  Friday proved to be a good day for Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates, which showed most of its improvements on this morning rate sheets.  We do not have a lot of activity being released on the economic data side.  Our next big report will come in on April 24th, when Durable goods release its current numbers.  Today Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will certainly be impacted by volume and Headlines.  I discussed several of the headline topics at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.  For now I will focus on the volume component.  Obviously when volume is down and supply is high investors will lower their price on Mortgage Backed Securities in order to stimulate buying.  Right now the market has seen mixed approaches and Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates have seen some movement in both directions.  We expect that rates will continue this hourly up and down swing, but ultimately over the long term will see rates drop.  If Durable Goods come in lower the expected we should see some nice improvements through the end of the month.  Right now we are maintaining our FLOAT recommendation until something in the market sparks a must lock situation.  We need to keep a close eye on Oil.  Oil continues to be the commodity that can make or break the direction the market goes.  So far Oil companies have done very little to help the overall state of the economy.  This is evident in the astonishing profit growth each of these companies have had in the last 4 quarters.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates will be impacted by the level of profitability made by these companies.  The cost of oil impacts the cost of production which in return impacts the cost to the consumer.  In short when oil goes up inflation tends to be on the rise.  When inflation creeps its ugly face into the Mortgage Backed Securities markets, investors begin to see their investments devalued and in return must offer a higher Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rate to compensate the difference.  If it were not for Oil prices we would probably be seeing some of the lowest Colorado home Mortgage Loan rates ever recorded.  Oil by itself does not move the market, but it does have an impact.  With that said everything else in the market signals better Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates to come.  Keep watch and remember call me with any questions.

The Federal Open Market Committee released their March meeting minutes to the public today.  Colorado Home Mortgage Loan rates tend to move up or down depending on how investors view the information being released.  The biggest issues for investors buying Mortgage Backed Securities is the FOMC outlook on inflation.  Inflation will always devalue a  long term investment like MBS which in return will cause Colorado home mortgage loan rates to jump up.  Today’s report however did not have the substance to move the market in any particular direction.  Normally when the minute reports are as vague as they are today, investors will become cautious causing rates to come down a bit.  Today we did not experience this and it was actually the lack of activity that brought the price of the bonds down this morning.  The reason that activity drives pricing on bonds up and down can be explained in simple economic terms.  Supply and demand.  Low activity signals low demand, and when you have a number of suppliers all trying to sell their bonds, a price reduction is needed to attract more demand.  When the price of bonds drop Colorado home mortgage loan rates will rise.  The lack of activity can only be explained right now by the degree of uncertainty investors are showing in their investment strategies.  When there is uncertainty it would be unwise to move  your investments back and forth on a daily basis.  Moving in and out of the market will never give the investor the longterm results their investors seek from a portfolio.   The wait and see approach typically takes over.  As soon as more data comes in that signals tough times ahead, the sooner we will see rates drop again.  Friday’s seem to be a good day for rates, though historically Friday’s rates have been higher.  I would expect rates to drop a bit in the next day or two and we will anticipate that the remaining weeks data will not paint a pretty picture on the economy.  A FLOATING recommendation has been issued but  remember to Target a rate and if your Colorado home mortgage loan rate expectation are met then LOCK.  Best of Luck and God Bless.

Bad economic news continues to be the top story in the market.   This has created a new demand for Mortgage Backed Securities.  Colorado Mortgage rates should see nice improvement today as bad economic news pushes investors towards Mortgage Backed Securities.  Unemployment figures came in at its worst level since 2003.  Also making headlines was the Employment Situation Report which reports a number of different employment related data.  The Employment Situation Report like the Unemployment report, did not have anything good to share.  This information will cause investors to move money out of high risk investments  making Mortgage Backed Securities a popular alternative investment.  Colorado Mortgage rates already released this morning show .25% better then yesterday.  This Colorado Mortgage rate reduction makes up all the ground lost in the last week.  If the trend continues we may see rates drop a little further by Monday or Tuesday of next week.  I always tell people be cautious of waiting to long to LOCK.  I have been burned way to many times to watch other people walk straight into fire.  When Colorado Mortgage rates are good then LOCK.   If Colorado Mortgage rates appear to be dropping in the near future, then FLOATING is recommended.  Right now I will give it about an 80% chance that rates will continue to drop into next week, but we will have to wait and see for that to happen.  Today if Colorado Mortgage rates drop to a point that is satisfactory to you then LOCK don’t wait.  Only LOCKING will guarantee you a Colorado Mortgage rate.  We have Economic reports due out just about everyday, and next week is no exception.  Investors are praying for some good news and if the economic reports next week show any light of hope Colorado Mortgage rates will begin to go up again.  I wrote both my blogs today and during that time I have had two Colorado Mortgage price alert changes for the better:-)  We will continue to Monitor Colorado Mortgage rates, but if you can get a Colorado Mortgage at 5.5% fixed then LOCK.  I can get that for you right now, which means LOCKING will be recommended.  If you want to ride it out Floating will not be too risky, it just will not guarantee a Colorado Mortgage fixed rate at 5.5%.  The choice is yours:-) 

Daniel

ADP’s numbers are in and so far nothing out of the ordinary.  They have reported employment numbers right in line with what investors expected.  Colorado Home Mortgage refinance loan rates did creep up a bit today, but this was still primarily from yesterday’s market activity.  Colorado Home Mortgage refinance loan rates moved up about .125% this morning and have pretty much maintained that level throughout the day.  I did however get a pricing alert from one of my investors late this morning, indicating a price improvement.  I believe the dust is settling from yesterday and investors are beginning to cash in on some short term stock profits by selling.  When investors sell off stock they typically move their money into safer investments like Mortgage Backed Securities.  When demand for MBS increases Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance loan rates will drop.  Several other reports came out today, but none of them caused any real movement in the market.  What we do have to remember is that the reports currently being released have not painted any good pictures for what is to come.  The news being reported still indicate that we are at some of the lowest points we have seen in some time and investors are aware of this.  As soon the tolerance for risk drops for investors,  the sooner the demand for Mortgage Backed Securities will increase.  A couple more reports indicating bad economic data should do the trick.  Look for rates to drop again by Friday, how much will depend on how bad the employment figures turn out to be.  Colorado Home Mortgage refinance lock recommendation remains as a FLOAT.  Be ready to LOCK quickly if the news on Friday comes out better then expected, but so far nothing has indicated that this would be the case.  This was probably the reason we saw a Colorado Home Mortgage refinance loan pricing alert for the better today.  Stay tuned and check out www.Coloradomortgagebanking.com/news  when you get a chance. 

I want to go on record to say I am not an english professor but a Colorado home loan provider.  I have my MBA from UCCS and have made studying monetary policy a high priority.  How else can I offer the best Colorado home loan options if I don’t have the knowledge to back it up.  I will be posting news information at least once a day, so that all my clients can get up to date information on the markets and how Mortgage Backed Securities will impact your colorado home loan options.  The big news today came in the announcement that J.P Morgan was buying Bear Sterans a large provider of Mortgage Backed Securities.  The federal reserve has stepped in to help J.P Morgan in its buy out to help avoid any major obsticles in any home loan options.  Colorado home loan choices will continue to be maintained at its current rates.  We will probably continue to see activity in the bond market incresing the price of the bonds and decreasing the rates charged on Colorado home loan options this week.  Inflation continues to breath its unhealth breath on the markets and typically will drive interest rates up when it is the center of attention.  The Consumer Price index  that came out on Friday put to rest most of the inflation concerns for awhile.  Colorado home loan rates have been moving down for about a week and we should continue to see Colorado home loan rates coming in better as the week progresses.  Stay tuned for any major news like the Federal Funds rate decreasing tomorrow.  we are projecting a full 1.0% decrease in the Federal Funds rates to help liquidity issues in the market.  Statistically everything points to us being in a recession and nothing looks worse for the Federal Reserve then a recession, so they are doing all they can to pull us through.  Last weeks burst of funds in to the market helped drive Colorado home loan rates to this years all time low and the continued bad news in the economy will continue to drive Colorado hom loan rates down.  If the media starts to focus on inflation as its biggest economic foe we will begin to see investors over react and Mortgage backed securities may start taking a hit, increasing Colorado home loan rates.  The key here is what will win the battle inflation news or bad economic news.  If inflation wins then Colorado home loan rates go up.  If the bad economic news wins Colorado home loan rates drop.  Right now we are entering into the 2nd half and Bad economic news is winning.  Leave it up to our referees the Federal reserve to find a way to even the playing field by decreasing short term interest rates and increasing cash into the economy.  When this happens inflation is not far behind.  In the mean time Colorado home loan rates should continue to drop today and into tomorrow, keep your ears and eyes open we may need to lock your rate soon.  Recommendation:  Float