Colorado Home Mortgage Loan

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates saw very little movement today.  The only major economic report to be released today was the Consumer Confidence numbers.  It appears that Consumer Confidence is at an all time low and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates did see some action because of this.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates dropped a bit but not enough to make any type of rate change in the lender rate sheets.  Most of what will impact the market will be released tomorrow and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will certainly see some action because of this.  Listed below I have a simple break down of the reports released today and what we can expect tomorrow:

Consumer Confidence fell to a record low 50.0, which was a lot worse then the 56.0 expectation set in the market last week.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will see some improvements based on this information alone.  Consumer Confidence has a direct correlation to consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of the economy. Consumer Confidence also has some correlation with joblessness, inflation, and real income. Typically only changes of five points or more are considered significant.  We had an 8.2 point drop from when the report was last issued and a 6 point drop from what was expected.  This should have had some strong impacts in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but so far it appears the FOMC is taking center stage.  There are other pressures that change consumer spending other than consumer confidence, inflation, joblessness, and regional business issues. Consumer Confidence is used to predict the direction of Consumer Spending but because of other influences, higher Confidence won’t always lead to higher Spending.  Higher Spending numbers could be in direct relation to higher inflation.  This would be bad for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  However this months report should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates for now.

Two Other Reports released today Richmond Fed Survey and Case-Shiller Price index numbers play separate roles in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Markets, but not enough to be considered a mover and a shaker.  Richmond Fed Survey works similar to the Empire State report and reports on manufacturing areas.  The report indicated a reduction in manufacturing demand which is a sign that our economy appears to be retracting.  The Price Shiller Price Index which monitors price changes in 10 different cities seemed to indicate that pricing is down which should be good news for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I only briefly talk about these because it does not impact the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets enough to make rates move.  However they were released today and the numbers seem to favor Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates so I wanted to mention them.

FOMC Meeting will conclude tomorrow and reports will begin to leak in about what was discussed in the meeting.  The first thing that will be determined is the FOMC action.  Action normally relates to what the FOMC has decided to do to short term interest rates.  If no action is taken on Short-Term Interest rates, the FOMC will signal that Economic Stimulus continues to be its main course of action.  This will be good for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  If Short Term interest rates are increased then the FOMC will be combating inflation which is very negative for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  I believe that the FOMC will leave rates alone and that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will react positively.  We just need to stay tuned to see if the board was split or not on this decision and we will need to watch for any major inflationary discussions.

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have dropped based on today’s economic reports.  So far it appears that the market has not reacted in a way typical for the type of data that was released.  Jobless Claims, Leading indicators, and Philadelphia Fed’s Index all came in at expectations, take a minute and review the impacts of these reports below:

Jobless Claims came in at 381K a bit higher then the 375K consensus.  It is obvious that we still have some major issues as it relates to Jobless Claims.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively from this report.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate. The four-week moving average and continuing claims are watched more closely for changes. The labor market is considered to be improving when the four-week moving average goes below 400,000. If unemployment goes low enough it can put wage pressure on the economy and can cause increases in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

The Leading Indicators report is composed of ten indicators designed to forecast the strength of the economy six to nine months into the future. The ten indicators are picked from different parts of the economy and are chosen because of their relevancy and accuracy. They are each given equal weight when applied to the composite index.  The LEI can predict peaks and troughs in the economy but because many of the indictors are released individually before the LEI composite index is released, Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets rarely watch the report very closely.  The Consensus for LEI was 0.00 and the actual LEI came in at .1.  In short this LEI report shows that we are still in a slow moving economy and it appears that we will see this continue for at least another 9 months.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will continue to improve as long as our Economy shows signs of weakness.

The Philadelphia Fed’s index is a monthly survey of manufacturers located around the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. Companies surveyed indicate the direction of change in their overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants. They are asked questions regarding employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968. The index signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. The Philadelphia Fed Index is considered to be a good indicator of changes in everything from employment, general prices, and conditions within the manufacturing industry. Manufacturing is considered to be a precursor to future economic conditions and it lays the groundwork toward economic recovery. For example, in a poor economy if manufacturing starts to pick up there is an expectation that the economy will soon follow behind.  This index isn’t a big Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Market mover, but the results found in the survey can indicate what to expect from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (which comes out a few days later and covers the entire U.S.).  The Philadelphia Fed’s index came in at -17% which was considerably lower then the consensus.  This should have improved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

In Conclusion:

You can easily see by today’s market that economic reports do not always create interest rate movements that are predictable.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should have reacted positively, but so far the market has not responded as expected.  So why are we seeing Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates trending up today.  I believe that a majority of the interest rate increases seen today is due to profit takers.  Having MBS prices pricing out low over the last few days many investors buying early in the week are selling today for a quick return.  I don’t believe that the market will sustain the selling spree and we should see Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates start improving again next week.  If you LOCK today you will be LOCKING in at a low point, however we should drop below today’s rate sometime next week.  This of course assumes that the Economic data continues to come in as expected.

Give me a call with your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate questions. I will be happy to assist you.

We saw another .25% hit on Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates sparked by another day of inflation talk by the Federal Reserve.  Inflation seems to be a very hot topic and will create issues for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates until something else makes the headlines.  For two days now members of the Federal Reserve have been commenting on the state of the economy and have expressed very clearly that inflation remains their top priority.  Fisher the southern states representative on the Federal Reserve Board is known for his tough stance on inflation, but yesterday Bernanke continued the trend by reaffirming his position on inflation.  The mortgage backed securities market went on a selling spree and have not stopped in the last 48 hours.  We have seen some of the sharpest increases in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance loan rates for the year.  Most lenders are offering Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance loan rates in the 6.5% range and if you have not locked in yet you may want to talk to your lender to see if the rates quoted 10 days ago will still be honored.  It is hard to make a FLOAT or LOCK recommendation on your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates today especially when the market is acting so irrational.

Global fears should be a real concern in the market today and should be monitored especially if it’s impacting your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  We should remember that much of the impacts are based on speculation about inflation not facts.  Not that I don’t think it is warranted, but none of the hard data being reported on inflation appears to be out of line.  Investors should come back to terms with their fears once we have more economic data to report on.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates may improve as investors jump back in the market to buy at a bargain.  Obviously if this happens we may see some slight improvements in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates. 

The only Economic report coming out today was the trade balance which came in right in line with expectations.  The report had very little impact on what the market did.  Increases seen today with Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates came from the continued upward spiral created by comments made earlier this week by the Federal Reserve.  We are probably not going to see much relief in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates until Friday the 13^th, which will be when or next Core inflationary report comes out.  Consumer Price index is expected to be released on that day which will give investor a much needed piece of the puzzle to determine whether Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will go up or start coming back down.

Right now we believe Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are set too high, but heck if you told me gas would be $4 a gallon 6 months ago I would have thought it to be highly unlikely as well.  Investors are driven on emotion and every investor appears to be fearful that the next person knows more then they do.  Investors being the lemmings they are will reaction to what everyone else is doing. The tendency in the market is to sell when everyone else is selling, and buy when everyone else is buying.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will react up or down Depending on what action investors are taking in the market.  Right now everyone is in a sell mode which has created an upward movement for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  How far it will go and when it will slow down is hard to say.  What can be said is that if the next couple economic reports come in as expected, then Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will settle down.  If the CPI report comes in like last month which was better then expected, we will see some rapid improvements in Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  LOCKING now will have you locking at this year’s highest interest rate lock.  I believe that the trend will continue over the next week or so but not to the extent felt over the last two days.  We may see some of the conservative price approaches used by investors today lighten up.  This would relieve some of the upward trends being realized in the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan markets today.  Friday the 13^th can be a day of horrors or a day of reckoning.  My only fear is the superstitious tendency for that day, which is normally bad news, but everything else tells me things will improve and I will remain with my FLOAT recommendation.  If 6.0% is on the table taking it would be your best bet, but right now I don’t believe it is an option on your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate.  We do have other options to look at.  Does 5.375% appeal to anyone?  You should ask me about that one it may be the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan program you are looking for.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates saw some more bad news hit the market.  Bad economic news will typically be good for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates.  The reports that came out today should have lowered Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates, but that just was not the case.  Instead Colorado Home Mortgage rates jumped up as investors moved quickly to sell off bonds.  You can read more about the Profit Seekers in bonds by reading www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news.  I will be using this site to talk specifics about economic reports currently released and due to be released in the near future.  The biggest mover of Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates are economic data reports and is why I focus this site on the explanation of these reports. 

New Home Sales for April posted 526K which was 6K higher then expected.  This caused investors to regain some lost confidence in the market and we saw investors selling off bonds to free up funds for equity trading.  We also had the Median home price report a 1.1% increase year over year.  I have a lot of people that ask me about home prices and the answer is simple; homes will retain their values over time and will increase in value over time.  This is the way it has always been and this is how it will be.

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates saw some additional active after the release of Consumer Confidence.  Consumer Confidence measures consumer’s interpretations on where the economy is and where the economy is going.  It is a basic feeler for what people think about the economy.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates tend to do better in times where Confidence is low.  The primary reason is that investors know spending will be lower during tough times therefore forcing them to invest in safer financial instruments like bonds.  Consumer Confidence came in at 57.2 where the consensus was 62.0.  This in itself should have moved Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates down, but other market activities held it in place.  However it should be noted had confidence readings not been so poor the potential for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates to increase even more would have been great. 

Finally, Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates will be impacted by several reports over the next three days.  We will maintain a FLOAT strategy, but we will ask you to use some CAUTION.  This is simply one persons predictions and I am forecasting that the economic data being released over the next couple days will favor Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates.  The experts have forecasted some poor numbers and the two biggest reports coming out Durable Goods and Preliminary GDP seem to be in areas of the economy that are not reporting stronger then expected numbers.

Durable Goods Orders reports the number of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. Durable goods are items considered to be useful for at least three years (such as vehicles, large appliances and computers.)  This report will Provide insight into demand as well as business investment. Companies willing to spend more on equipment and other capital are possibly experiencing sustainable growth and could be planning on greater production capacity. The Durable Goods Orders report is a leading indicator for the manufacturing sector and has a big effect on the Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance markets despite its volatility and large revisions. The non-defense category closely reflects the GDP category, Producer Durable Equipment, and is looked at more closely than the overall headline number. 

The GDP report gives a complete picture of the state of the economy as well as estimates for future output based on supply and demand.  Advance GDP is the initial reading each quarter. As more data is collected, the Preliminary GDP release reflects the first revision. The Final GDP report for the prior quarter is released near the end of the current quarter.  GDP is a significant report for several reasons. It is the most encompassing picture of economic activity and when paired with the employment report gives a picture of productivity growth. The data is used to define business cycle peaks and troughs. Higher GDP points to accelerated inflation while lower GDP indicates a weak economy.

We will also have Jobless Claims being reported which will either help or hurt Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance rates depending on the direction GDP and Durable Goods force rates to go.  The report works well with GDP and should help dictate Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance movements later that day.  Please call me with any Colorado Home Mortgage refinance questions and have a great evening.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are taking a hit first thing this morning in anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes due to be released.  The primary reason for increased Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates this morning stems from the lack of volume currently trade on the Mortgage Backed Securities floor.  The FOMC minutes are released at 2:00 PM EST on pre-scheduled days. Minutes are prepared to provide the necessary information to Congress and the public on policies and actions of the FOMC. The summary description of economic and financial conditions contained in these minutes is based solely on the information that was available to the Committee at the time of the meeting. The minutes of each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are made available a few days after the next regularly scheduled meeting. For example, the minutes of the first meeting of the year are released a few days after the second meeting of the year.  It is what the FOMC says in these minutes that will impact the direction Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will go.

We have implemented a LOCKING strategy over the last couple of days, and we are still advocating clients to LOCK.  5.75% is the right pricing point to lock at the moment as it appears rates may climb a bit today and tomorrow.  We may even see rates change a bit over the next couple of hours if the Mortgage Backed Securities Market continues its downward pricing trend.  Remember that we have an inverse relationship with the price of bonds and Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  When Bond prices drop Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates increase.  The opposite is said when bond price go up.

Here is a look at the Mortgage Backed Securities market so far.

This is a graph I monitor everyday and it is simple to see when the trend is below 0.00 Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are expected to go up.  If  the trend is above 0.00 it is safe to assume that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will do down.  The trick here is to determine how the outside influences will move this graph.  If we have poor economic data coming in the graph will trend up if the economic data being released comes in better the expected the graph will drop.  This in a nutshell is how Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are expected to go up and down over time.  Our job is to get in about 12 hours before that happens and predict the direction.  More importantly we take the overall trend and focus on where it may go in the long run.  Its tough to determine where Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will go, but not impossibleJ

We have Jobless claims being released tomorrow and New home sales on Thrusday.  Both these reports will impact the market and at the momement I believe both reports will show negative economic data.  This should mean that Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates should not spike too much this week, but the will not improve to a point where FLOATING makes sense.  If you have not LOCKED in your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate yet then LOCK.  The Risk/Reward will not pay off in the long run.  Please call me with any of your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate questions.  Also check out my other site www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news when you have time.

Daniel

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates appear to be holding steady today as economic news appears to be light.  We had only one Economic Report to speak of, and though it came in high, it did not impact the market much.  ISM Service index reported higher today then expected, which typically moves Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates in the wrong direction.  This report is monitored by the Federal Reserve and does have inflationary implications.  You can read more on that at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news

Here are a few smaller economic reports due out this week; Productivity, Pending Home Sales Index; Jobless Claims; and Trade Balance.  All of these reports will have some impacts on mortgage rates, but the biggest mover this week will be the stock market.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates move in direct correlation with stock market gains or Losses. 

High Productivity allows firms to produce more with an equal amount of labor. If fewer workers are needed, the inflation pressure on wages will be lower. The Productivity report is not a timely report as it is only released quarterly and most of the information in the report has already been released in other reports. The report does provide the best overall picture of the economy’s efficiency.  This report is projected to come in low around 1.2%, anything higher can cause Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates to rise.

Pending Home Sales are important but the name pretty much sums up what the report will say.  Right now we are projected to have a negative growth in this area, but that is not new news and as a result Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will not be impacted by this report.   Jobless Claims, which is actually due out on Thursday not Friday like I reported yesterday, will have this week’s greatest influence on Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.  Initial jobless claims measure the number of first time filings for state jobless benefits. Claims are quite volatile from week to week; therefore many analysts track a four-week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. The report also contains two other statistics- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate.  High Jobless Claims signals poor economic conditions.  Poor economic conditions cause investors to invest more in securities and in return will cause Colorado Mortgage Refinance Loan rates to drop. 

I know it is a lot to digest so I will summarize all my blogs within the last paragraph.  Reporting this week will be low as it relates to economic reports.  However the news being report will have some impact, but not as much impact as the stock market itself.  Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates will move with the stock market this week.  Since most of the 1Q reports have already been released it appears that this week should go slow.  Current Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are trending right around the 5.875% range with no points.  We are keeping our Lock recommendations at 5.75%.  Please call with any questions you might have on your Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan programs.

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rates will be impacted by 4 economic reports Tuesday and Wednesday.  Consumer Confidence, Advanced GDP, Chicago PMI, and Finally information coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  All of the data coming out of these reports will send signals to the market indicating economic stability.  As you know this information is vital to the pricing of Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rates. 

Consumer Confidence has a direct correlation to consumer spending, which accounts for two thirds of the economy. Consumer Confidence also has some correlation with joblessness, inflation, and real income. Typically only changes of five points or more are considered significant with higher numbers pointing to greater consumer spending. There are other pressures that change consumer spending other than consumer confidence, inflation, joblessness, and regional business issues. Consumer Confidence is used to predict the direction of Consumer Spending but because of other influences, higher Confidence won’t always lead to higher Spending.  This report will have an impact on Tuesdays Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates are also influenced heavily by advanced GDP.  GDP is a significant report for several reasons. It is the most encompassing picture of economic activity and when paired with the employment report gives a picture of productivity growth. The data is used to define business cycle peaks and troughs. Higher GDP points to accelerated inflation while lower GDP indicates a weak economy.

The Chicago PMI is measured by new orders, production, supplier deliveries, inventories and employment; asking for positive, negative or unchanged readings of each. A reading above 50% generally indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50% signifies contraction.  So far this year manufacturing shows signs of contracting.  Contraction in manufacturing is considered bad for the economy, but good for Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rates.

Finally the Federal Open Market Committee meet to determine new monetary policy direction for our financial markets.  So Far the Federal Reserve action has been to lower interest rates, which by 99.9% of Americans means interest rates are falling.  THIS IS NOT TRUE.  Lower short term rates means more liquidity more liquidity means more spending.  When the economy spends more it does stimulate the economy, but it also has very negative influences on inflations.  We all should know by now that high inflation means Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rates will suffer.  We expect the information coming out of Wednesday Federal Open Market Committee meeting to signal a .25% short term interest reduction.  Anything higher will cause Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rates to increase out of fear for inflation. 

I have Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan rate information posted at www.coloradomortgagebanking.com/news  In the mean time let me know of any Colorado Home Mortgage Refinance Loan Rate questions you might have.  FLOAT remains our recommendation and you can read more about that at the site listed above.  Best of luck and seem my post tomorrow sometime after 1pm.